IMF Working Papers

The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

By Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou

February 12, 2014

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Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Chris Papageorgiou. The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed October 11, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.

Subject: Economic sectors, Financial crises, Foreign exchange, Fuel prices, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Labor, Labor costs, Manufacturing, Personal income, Prices, Real effective exchange rates

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Cost, Durable and nondurable subsectors, Durable goods, Durable goods production, Exchange rate, Fuel prices, Global, Global Financial Crisis, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Growth, Labor costs, Manufacturing, Nondurable goods, Per capita income, Price, Production, Real effective exchange rates, Shale gas, Share of U.S., U.S relative, U.S. manufacturing sector, Unit labor cost, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    24

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2014/028

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2014028

  • ISBN:

    9781484301821

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941