Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

By Valerie Cerra, Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

March 9, 2017

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Format: Chicago

Valerie Cerra, and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael. Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed October 6, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.

Subject: Export performance, Exports, Income distribution, Income inequality, International trade, National accounts, Service exports

Keywords: Acceleration date, Banking sector, Basket composition, Caribbean, Exchange rate, Export acceleration, Export accelerations, Export deceleration, Export diversification help, Export growth, Export performance, Export surge, Export takeoff, Exports, Globalization, Goods export deceleration, Goods export takeoff, Growth, Income distribution, Income inequality, Inequality, Latin America and the Caribbean, Probit, Real GDP, Service exports, Sub-Saharan Africa, Synthetic control method, Trade, Unemployment, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

68
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/043
Stock No:

WPIEA2017043
ISBN:

9781475585506
ISSN:

1018-5941

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