Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World

Author/Editor:

Valerie Cerra ; Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael

Publication Date:

March 9, 2017

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.

Series:

Working Paper No. 17/43

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 9, 2017

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475585506/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2017043

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

68

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