The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies
IMF Working Papers, June 13, 2018
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- The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mitali Das, Benjamin Hilgenstock
- Published: June 13, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484361900.001
Overview and objective
- Title: The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies
- Authors: Mitali Das, Benjamin Hilgenstock
- Publication date: June 13, 2018
- Series: Working Paper No. 2018/135
- Issue: 135
- Pages: 39
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484361900.001
- ISBN: 9781484361900
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Core objective: Propose a measure of the exposure to routinization (the risk of displacement of labor by information technology) and assemble empirical facts linking exposure to prospects of labor-market polarization across countries.
Key empirical findings
- Sample coverage:
- Exposure measures drawn for about 85 countries since 1990.
- Main empirical facts established:
- (1) Developing economies are significantly less exposed to routinization than their developed counterparts.
- (2) The initial exposure to routinization is a strong predictor of the long-run exposure.
- (3) Among countries with high initial exposures to routinization, polarization dynamics have been strong and subsequent exposures have fallen; while among those with low initial exposure, the globalization of trade and structural transformation have prevailed and routine exposures have risen.
- Evidence on polarization:
- Documented automation-driven polarization in many developed economies.
- Little evidence of polarization in developing countries thus far.
Interpretation and implications
- Trends:
- Rapidly rising exposures to routinization in many countries.
- Risks and potential consequences:
- Escalation of future labor market polarization risks.
- Potentially significant consequences for productivity, growth and distribution.
Subject tags and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Economic growth, Employment, Labor, Labor force, Labor markets, Structural transformation
- Keywords: automation, developed economy, developing economy, economies fall, Employment, employment share, exposure to routinization, Global, globalization, inequality, information technology, Labor force, Labor markets, Polarization, routine exposure, routine occupations, structural transformation, WP
Source: IMF Working Paper No. 2018/135, "The Exposure to Routinization: Labor Market Implications for Developed and Developing Economies", Mitali Das and Benjamin Hilgenstock, June 13, 2018.
Content in this bundle
- wp18135 - Section 3 discusses the drivers and mechanisms which lie behind polarization in developed