Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Author/Editor:

Karel Musil ; Mikhail Pranovich ; Jan Vlcek

Publication Date:

December 7, 2018

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Series:

Working Paper No. 18/254

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 7, 2018

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484385616/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2018254

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

41

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