Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus
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Summary:
Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2018/254
Subject:
Demand for money Exchange rates Foreign exchange Inflation Inflation targeting Monetary policy Money Output gap Prices Production
English
Publication Date:
December 7, 2018
ISBN/ISSN:
9781484385616/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2018254
Pages:
41
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