Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
IMF Working Papers, October 11, 2019
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- Assessing Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth from Space: An Application to Yemen 2012-17
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Majdi Debbich
- Published: October 11, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513514567.001
Summary and research question
- Uses satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the conflict that erupted in 2015.
- Objective: derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen using nightlights elasticities estimated from international samples.
Data and methodology
- Satellite inputs: nightlights (nighttime lights, VIIRS data) and gas flaring (radiant heat) data.
- Elasticity estimation samples:
- 72 countries for real GDP over 6 years.
- 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years.
- Approach: apply estimated nightlights elasticities to Yemen to estimate oil and non-oil real GDP growth.
Key findings
- Real GDP contraction:
- Real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17.
- Official figures report a cumulative 50 percent contraction over 2015-17.
- Spatial heterogeneity:
- The impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven, with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Subject tags and keywords (as provided)
- Subjects: Commodities, Economic growth, Economic recession, Economic sectors, Natural gas sector, Oil, Oil production, Oil sector, Production.
- Keywords: conflict, data remains, economic growth, Economic recession, growth in Yemen, Natural gas sector, nightlights data, nightlights intensity, nighttime lights, Oil, Oil production, oil production data, Oil sector, producing governorate, radiant heat, real GDP, real GDP equation, satellite data, Sub-Saharan Africa, VIIRS data, WP.
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- Working Paper