Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

Author/Editor:

Joannes Mongardini ; Aneta Radzikowski

Publication Date:

May 29, 2020

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

Series:

Working Paper No. 20/70

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

May 29, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513545851/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020070

Format:

Paper

Pages:

20

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