Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

IMF Working Papers, May 29, 2020

Source details

Global smartphone sales may have peaked after reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016.
Global smartphone sales have declined since 2016, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019.
The paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales and finds that sales are likely to decline further.
As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

The authors develop a simple forecasting model for smartphone sales; model results indicate a continued decline in global smartphone sales (no specific numerical forecast figures provided on the page).
Historical anchor: peak sales at nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016.
Recent trade impact: smartphone sales trends contributed negatively to world trade in 2019.

Shift in tech companies' revenue models toward embedded services: cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services.
Implication: global trade effects may increasingly favor services exports rather than merchandise exports.
Distributional effect: services-export gains are likely concentrated mostly in advanced economies.

Source: IMF Working Paper “Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked” (May 29, 2020) by Joannes Mongardini and Aneta Radzikowski.