Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Author/Editor:

Hans Weisfeld ; Irineu E de Carvalho Filho ; Fabio Comelli ; Rahul Giri ; Klaus-Peter Hellwig ; Chengyu Huang ; Fei Liu ; . Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz ; Alexis Meyer-Cirkel ; Andrea F Presbitero

Publication Date:

December 18, 2020

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2020/289

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

December 18, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513564609/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020289

Pages:

63

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