License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

Author/Editor:

Jelle Barkema ; Miss Borislava Mircheva ; Mico Mrkaic ; Yuanchen Yang

Publication Date:

May 7, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.

Series:

IMF Working Papers

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

May 7, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513573670/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021134

Pages:

25

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