Social Protection in China – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | December 2018

Source details

Canonical URL: Social Protection in China – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | December 2018

China is adapting social protection to the needs of a market economy amid slowing growth and rising expectations.
Xi Jinping framed the principal contradiction as "the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life."
The government seeks to reconcile rising middle-class aspirations with needs of millions remaining in poverty.

1949–1976 (Mao era): cradle-to-grave welfare state with "iron rice bowl" benefits provided by government enterprises and agencies (housing, education, health care, pensions, basic incomes, funeral costs).
1980s–1990s (Deng reforms): market mechanisms introduced; gradual reshaping of welfare to meet private-sector needs; removal of employer housing provisions; shift of some social services to local governments.
1994: guidelines drafted for a multitiered system of social insurance, social welfare, and individual savings.
Late 1990s–2005: unemployment insurance, living allowances, minimum income guarantees, and basic pension system introduced; by 2005 typical retired urban worker received two distinct pensions (employer-account based and individual-account based).
Late 2000s (post-global financial crisis): stimulus and fiscal space enabled expansion of affordable housing, progressive tax reforms, targeted spending on health care, education, cultural spending in rural areas, and infrastructure; broader social welfare coverage extended.

Health insurance coverage expanded: "Ten years ago, most people in China did not have access to health insurance; today 96 percent or so are covered in one way or another."
Pension coverage broadened in 2009 and further revised in 2015, moving from a state-enterprise to a state-society model.
Uneven system: five distinct pension scheme classes emerged; the new model strengthened link between benefits and contributions, privileging the better off.
Income and regional disparities persist:
- Gini coefficient remained stubbornly above 0.4.
- Many rural residents, unemployed urban residents, and jobless migrants were not covered by pension programs until 2009.
- Most of China’s 1.4 billion people are now covered, but gaps and stratification remain.

Xi claimed China had lifted some 60 million people out of poverty in the previous five years.
Official poverty: about 30 million people—almost 2 percent of the population—linger below the poverty line (defined as earning the equivalent of about 95 cents a day).
World Bank estimate: nearly 500 million people live just above the poverty line, on less than $5.50 a day.
Urbanization strategy: 2014 plan to shift some 250 million people to cities by 2026 to increase urbanization, boost domestic consumption, and improve delivery of social services (including redrawing municipal boundaries and relocating rural residents).
Poverty-reduction spending under Xi’s first term: central government poverty-reduction funds were more than double the total spending of the previous five years; funds used mainly for infrastructure, agricultural subsidies, and discounted loans.
Trend: spending for the dibao minimum living standard provision has been declining as a percentage of GDP (Ministry of Finance figures).

Xi has reasserted the role of the party and state, favoring the public sphere and extending its reach; measures include increased party role on company boards and reopening credit to state-owned enterprises.
Policy trade-offs:
- Favoring state-owned enterprises may spur growth but risks inefficiency and rising nonperforming loans.
- Local officials often prioritize restoring growth over expanding pensions, improving education, or relaxing the hukou system.
Technological change: investment in robotics and automation could displace workers in logistics and manufacturing, increasing social welfare needs and creating potential mismatch between prior employer-provided benefits and national plans.

Demographic pressure: the State Council predicts about a quarter of the population will be over 60 by 2030.
Estimated pension funding shortfall within the next few years: $130 billion to $175 billion.
Government responses and possible options cited in the source:
- Direct measures: transferring assets to pension funds (example: government directed several large state-owned companies to transfer 10 percent of their stock to pension funds).
- Fiscal transfers: tapping general revenues to make up shortfalls.
- Asset management: investing funds more effectively to boost returns.
- Benefit-side adjustments: cutting benefits (politically risky) or raising contribution rates for companies and individuals (contribution rates already described as high compared with other countries).

60 million people lifted out of poverty in the previous five years (as stated by Xi).
Goal to end rural poverty by 2020.
250 million people to be shifted to cities by 2026 (2014 plan).
China’s population total cited: 1.4 billion people.
Health insurance coverage: 96 percent or so.
About 30 million people—almost 2 percent of the population—below the poverty line (about 95 cents a day).
Nearly 500 million people live on less than $5.50 a day (World Bank estimate).
Gini coefficient remained stubbornly above 0.4.
Pension funding shortfall estimates: $130 billion to $175 billion.
State Council projection: about a quarter of the population will be over 60 by 2030.
Government-directed stock transfers to pension funds: 10 percent of stock.

Source: Social Protection in China — F&D Magazine, December 2018.

البحث عن التوازن
- البحث عن التوازن (Markdown version)
- البحث عن التوازن (PDF)
Social Protection in China – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | December 2018
- Social Protection in China – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | December 2018 (Markdown version)
- Social Protection in China – IMF Finance & Development Magazine | December 2018 (PDF)
寻求平衡 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊
- 寻求平衡 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 (Markdown version)
- 寻求平衡 - 金融与发展 - 国际货币基金组织季刊 (PDF)