Cities After The Pandemic

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Cities After The Pandemic

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: DAVID CUTLER, EDWARD GLAESER
• Published: December 1, 2022

Overview

• Central question: What impact will the double blow of the COVID-19 pandemic and the remote-working revolution have on cities?
• Core conclusion: As long as we don’t face a new and deadlier pandemic in the near future, the cities of the developed world will largely recover; their appeal to knowledge-intensive industries and younger workers is that strong.
• Caveat for developing-world cities: They have already come back, but they may suffer future costs if reduced global business travel leads to a decline in foreign direct investment.
• Policy implication: The wealthy world should invest more in public health and medical care systems to prevent future pandemics, including more investment in the poorer parts of the planet.

Historical context of urban epidemics and urban resilience

• Epidemics have long shaped cities:
  • First well-documented urban plague struck Athens in 430 BCE.
  • The Plague of Justinian hit Constantinople in 541 CE.
  • The Black Death killed perhaps one-third of Europe’s population in the 14th century; survivors experienced higher wages and increased per capita wealth thereafter.
• Nineteenth-century globalization spread yellow fever and cholera; these diseases killed a vastly higher share of the population than COVID-19.
• Public-health investments (example: New York’s Croton Aqueduct) were pivotal in making cities safer and enabling continued urban growth.
• The period 1919 to 2019 is described as a “fortunate century” in the rich world with relatively contained outbreaks (SARS, MERS, Ebola, swine flu) and the development of antiretroviral medications for HIV.

Pandemic-era technological shifts and urban activity

• Remote work and social isolation technologies shaped the wealthy world’s COVID-19 experience.
• Key statistics preserved from the source:
  • In May 2020, two-thirds of Americans with advanced degrees were working from home.
  • Google mobility data show that visits to workplaces in the United States were still down by 28 percent in August 2022 compared with the pre-pandemic period.
  • In Manhattan and London, workplace visits were down by more than 45 percent.
• Risk described: A potential downward cycle—permanently empty offices → reduced demand for local services → unemployment and lower public spending → more workers leaving cities.
• Individual-city vulnerability: Cities that allow crime to degrade urban quality of life are particularly at risk.

Economic and social role of cities

• Urban benefits emphasized:
  • Cities connect people and transmit complex and nuanced information.
  • People earn more in cities than in rural areas.
  • Cities provide venues for cultural amenities and social interaction (cafés, museums, arts venues).
  • Suicide rates are lower in cities than in rural areas, possibly reflecting better mental health.
  • Cities historically attract migrants escaping rural poverty.
• Downsides of density: Contagious disease is the most terrible downside.

Policy recommendations and priorities

• Invest more in public health and medical care systems in wealthy countries to prevent future pandemics.
• Increase investment in poorer parts of the planet to reduce global pandemic risk.
• Cities should emphasize public health as part of strategies to keep economies healthy and sustain urban appeal.

DAVID M. CUTLER and EDWARD GLAESER, F&D Magazine, December 2022.

Content in this bundle

• Cities After the Pandemic
  • Cities After the Pandemic (Markdown version)
  • Cities After the Pandemic (PDF)