The Use of DSGE Models in the Policy-Making Process - Advanced
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Bibliographic details
- Session: CT 19.08
- Location: Dalian, China
- Dates: September 2-6, 2019 (1 week)
- Primary language: English
- Interpretation language: Chinese
Course overview and logistics
- Title: The Use of DSGE Models in the Policy-Making Process - Advanced
- Invitation Session No.: CT 19.08
- Location: Dalian, China
- Date: September 2-6, 2019 (1 week)
- Primary Language: English
- Interpretation Language: Chinese
- Presented by: the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development
Target audience and qualifications
- Target audience:
- Mid- to senior-level officials involved in developing forecasts that are used in the design and implementation of macroeconomic policy.
- Qualifications:
- Participants should have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Participants should be comfortable using software for econometric applications such as EViews.
Course objectives and format
- Objective:
- Strengthen participants' macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills through the application of modern econometric techniques.
- Format and pedagogy:
- Lectures include discussion of underlying theory.
- Live presentations of empirical analyses on a personal computer.
- Hands-on learning by participants in a computer lab.
- Participants apply techniques to a case study country: estimate a model, evaluate it, and use the model for forecasting.
Core technical contents and emphases
- The course focuses on five aspects of empirical model building and forecasting:
- data and model properties, including stationarity, non-stationarity and cointegration;
- dynamic specification, including the use of error correction models;
- model evaluation and model design;
- forecast uncertainty, forecasting for policy, and policy analysis; and
- combination forecasts.
References