IMF Executive Board Completes the Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, and the Second Reviews under the Stand-By Credit Facility and the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation for Senegal
IMF News, June 22, 2022
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- IMF Executive Board Completes the Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, and the Second Reviews under the Stand-By Credit Facility and the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation for Senegal
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- Authors: Credit Facility
- Published: June 22, 2022
Reviews completed and financing actions
- The Executive Board completed the Fifth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and the Second Reviews under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF).
- The completion of the reviews enables the immediate release of about US$215.78 million (SDR 161.82 million) to Senegal.
- The Board approved an augmentation of access and a waiver of the non-observance of a performance criterion, and the modification of a performance criterion and quantitative targets.
- Total access under the blended 18-month SBA/SCF arrangements approved in June 2021 was increased by about US$172.6 million (SDR 129.44 million), from about US$650 million (SDR 453 million) at the time of approval, to about US$776.67 million (SDR 582.44 million).
Recent economic developments and projections
- Growth this year was revised down to about 5 percent.
- Inflation is expected to reach 5.5 percent, driven by higher food and energy prices.
- The authorities adopted a supplementary budget in May 2022 to accommodate temporary and targeted measures to support the most vulnerable and to stabilize food prices consumed by lower and middle-income households.
- The new spending incorporated in the supplementary budget will bring the fiscal deficit this year to 6.2 percent of GDP compared to 4.8 percent of GDP in the initial budget.
- Public debt is expected to reach 75 percent of GDP in 2022.
- Despite near-term headwinds, the outlook points to robust economic activity over the medium term provided appropriate policies are implemented; however, the outlook is subject to significant uncertainty and risks are tilted to the downside.
Key risks and shocks cited
- Soaring global fuel and food prices, compounded by the war in Ukraine.
- The freeze on trade with Mali due to sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
- A protracted war in Ukraine.
- A prolonged freeze on trade with Mali.
- A flare-up of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- A deterioration of the regional security situation.
- Rising social demands.
- A severe tightening of external financial conditions.
- The possible impact of adverse climate conditions.
Policy assessment and recommendations
- The authorities’ fiscal policy response appropriately supports vulnerable households through temporary and targeted measures and a relaxation of the fiscal deficit.
- Reducing debt vulnerabilities will require steadfast implementation of the medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy anchored by reaching a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2024.
- Rising energy subsidies due to higher global oil prices are an important fiscal risk.
- The recent increase of selective energy prices, carefully designed to protect the most vulnerable, is a step in the right direction to mitigate this risk.
- Over the medium-term, a gradual elimination of energy subsidies is a priority, which should be accompanied by measures to strengthen existing social safety nets.
- Fiscal and external resilience should be strengthened through:
- An accelerated implementation of the domestic revenue mobilization strategy.
- Prudent debt management.
- Enhanced spending efficiency, notably by reducing recourse to single source procurement.
- Finalizing the fiscal framework to manage oil and gas revenues and improving the business environment to attract private investment and create jobs remain priorities.
- Financial system vulnerabilities need monitoring, and deficiencies in the AML/CFT framework need to be tackled with greater urgency to avoid possible negative macroeconomic and reputational repercussions.
Exact key figures
- Immediate release enabled: US$215.78 million (SDR 161.82 million)
- Augmentation of access: about US$172.6 million (SDR 129.44 million)
- Original total access (June 2021): about US$650 million (SDR 453 million)
- New total access: about US$776.67 million (SDR 582.44 million)
- Revised growth this year: about 5 percent
- Expected inflation: 5.5 percent
- Fiscal deficit after supplementary budget: 6.2 percent of GDP
- Initial budget fiscal deficit: 4.8 percent of GDP
- Public debt expected in 2022: 75 percent of GDP
- Medium-term fiscal consolidation target: fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2024
IMF Press Release No. 22/221, June 22, 2022. IMF Communications Department.