19th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on "International Spillovers and Cooperation"

Washington, D.C.

November 1-2, 2018

In an increasingly interconnected world, policies motivated by national objectives can have far reaching international consequences. These international externalities provide the basis for policy coordination and multilateral institutions. Backlash against globalization, however, has increased pressure on policymakers to step away from commitments to international cooperation and has undermined support for global institutions. This year’s conference on “International Spillovers and Cooperation” will bring together researchers and policymakers to discuss innovative research in this area and facilitate the exchange of views.

The conference is open to the public and registration is required (registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Economic Forum). Online registration is now open. Registered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington D.C. For questions regarding the conference, please email ARC@imf.org. Further information on the conference program will be posted on the IMF website (www.imf.org).

Please note that, for this event, invitations for visa purposes will be extended only to the conference participants.

List of Speakers and Bios

Thursday, November 1, 2018

8:00–9:00 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

9:00–9:15 a.m.

Opening Remarks: David Lipton (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)

9:15–10:45 a.m.

Session 1: Capital Flows, Risk Taking and Macroprudential Regulation

Chair: Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)

Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds

John Ammer (Federal Reserve Board), Stijn Claessens (Bank for International Settlements), Alexandra Tabova (Federal Reserve Board), and Caleb Wroblewski (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

Discussant: Jesse Schreger (Columbia Business School)

Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?

Toni Ahnert (Bank of Canada), Kristin Forbes (MIT-Sloan School), Christian Friedrich (Bank of Canada), and Dennis Reinhardt (Bank of England)

Discussant: Shekhar Aiyar (IMF)

10:45–11:00 a.m.

*** Coffee Break ***

11:00–12:30 p.m.

Session 2: Welfare and Policy Coordination with Integrated Financial Markets

Chair: C. Fred Bergsten (Senior Fellow and Director Emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Implementable Rules for International Monetary Policy Coordination

Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia), Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin), and Giovanni Lombardo (Bank for International Settlements)

Discussant: Gianluca Benigno (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and London School of Economics)

On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing

Mark Aguiar (Princeton University) and Manuel Amador (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minnesota)

Discussant: Leonardo Martinez (IMF)

12:35–1:55 p.m.

*** Lunch ***
(By invitation only, IMF HQ2, Conference Hall 2)

2:00–4:00 p.m.

Session 3: Trade, Financial Linkages and Exchange Rates

Chair: Alexander Swoboda (Honorary Professor, International Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva)

The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Regional Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis

Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School), Alejandro Cuñat (University of Vienna and CES-ifo), Harald Fadinger (University of Mannheim), and Yanping Liu (University of Mannheim)

Discussant: Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency

Gita Gopinath (Harvard University) and Jeremy C. Stein (Harvard University)

Discussant: Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University)

Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

François de Soyres (World Bank)

Discussant: Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

4:00–4:15 p.m.

*** Coffee Break ***

4:15–5:45 p.m.

Mundell-Fleming Lecture: The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and its Implications for Multilateralism

Raghuram Rajan (Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

Introduction by Maurice Obstfeld (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

Friday, November 2, 2018

8:15–9:15 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

9:15–10:45 a.m.

Session 4: Trade Linkages and Trade Protection

Chair: Martin Mühleisen (Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF)

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Davide Furceri (IMF), Swarnali A. Hannan (IMF), Jonathan D. Ostry (IMF), and Andrew K. Rose (University of California, Berkeley)

Discussant: Penny Koujianou Goldberg (Yale University)

The Economics and Politics of Revoking NAFTA

Barthelemy Bonadio (University of Michigan) and Andrei Levchenko (University of Michigan)

Discussant: Kei-Mu Yi (University of Houston)

10:45–11:00 a.m.

*** Coffee Break ***

11:00–12:30 p.m.

Session 5: Spillovers of Tax and Spending Policies

Chair: Poul Thomsen (Director, European Department, IMF)

At A Cost: the Real Effects of Transfer Pricing Regulations

Ruud De Mooij (IMF) and Li Liu (IMF)

Discussant: Julien Martin (Université du Québec à Montréal)

Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States

Alan Auerbach (University of California, Berkeley), Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley), and Daniel Murphy (University of Virginia)

Discussant: Christopher Erceg (Federal Reserve Board)

12:35–1:55 p.m.

*** Lunch ***
(By invitation only, IMF HQ2, Conference Hall 2)

2:00–4:00 p.m.

Session 6: Uncertainty and Policy Spillovers

Chair: Alejandro Werner (Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF)

Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty

Nina Biljanovska (IMF), Francesco Grigoli (IMF), and Martina Hengge (The Graduate Institute)

Discussant: Luis Felipe Céspedes (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez)

U.S. or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters Most for Financial Stability?

Stephen G. Cecchetti (Brandeis International Business School), Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli (IMF), Machiko Narita (IMF), and Ratna Sahay (IMF)

Discussant:Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)

The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy on Global Financial Stability

Bora Durdu (Federal Reserve Board), Alex Martin (Federal Reserve Board), and Ilknur Zer (Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant:Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University)

4:00–4:15 p.m.

*** Coffee Break ***

4:15–5:45 p.m.

Economic Forum: Navigating Rough Waters: Challenges to Policymaking in an Interconnected World

Moderator: Maurice Obstfeld (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

Panelists:

  1. Agustín Carstens (Bank for International Settlements)
  2. Takatoshi Ito (School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University)
  3. Silvana Tenreyro (Bank of England and London School of Economics)
  4. Ksenia Yudaeva (Central Bank of the Russian Federation)

Conference Program Committee: Anil Ari (IMF), Gianluca Benigno (IMF, London School of Economics), Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Zoltan Jakab (IMF), Callum Jones (IMF), Roberto Piazza (IMF), Linda Tesar (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review, University of Michigan), and Filiz Unsal (IMF)

Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Natalie Tate

Disclaimer: The website contains papers and web links to papers that will be presented at the Nineteenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.