2021  Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

Toward an Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

November 4-5, 2021

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva opens the 22nd IMF Annual Research Conference.

The International Monetary Fund will hold the 22nd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference virtually on November 4-5, 2021.

It is over a year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and there remains tremendous uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic. Much depends on the outcome of the ongoing race between a mutating virus and multiple vaccines, and on the ability of policies to provide effective support until we are past this health crisis. After a historic collapse in the first half of 2020, the global economy has partially recovered but prospects diverge dramatically across and within countries. The inequity in access to vaccines, the wide disparities in fiscal space across countries, and structural differences can exacerbate these divergences.

In this context, the 2021 IMF Annual Research Conference will focus on strategies to bring about a resilient recovery by boosting growth and reducing inequality across and within countries. Resilience will require policies to support growth and restore confidence, including the appropriate fiscal-monetary policy mix, addressing the debt overhang, and mitigating the negative impact on employment and income distribution. The conference will bring together academics and policy makers, foster innovative research, and provide a platform for a fruitful exchange of views.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva opens the 22nd IMF Annual Research Conference.


Thursday, November 4, 2021

9:00–9:15 am

Opening Remarks—Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF)

9:15–10:45 am

Session 1: Vaccines

Chair: Antonio Spilimbergo (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

COVID-19 Vaccination and Financial Frictions in Emerging Markets
Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minnesota), Yan Bai (University of Rochester) and Gabriel Mihalache (Stony Brook University)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Pierre Yared (Columbia University)

COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy
Niels-Jakob Hansen (IMF) and Rui Mano (IMF)
Discussant: Aaron Flaaen (Federal Reserve Board)

10:45–11:00 am

***Coffee Break***

11:00–12:00 pm

Uneven Distribution of Vaccines, Divergent Recovery, and Policy Responses in Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets

A conversation between Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) and Raghuram Rajan (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business)


Session 2: Fiscal Policy

Chair: Vitor Gaspar (Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF)

A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy
Atif Mian (Princeton University), Ludwig Straub (Harvard University) and Amir Sufi (Chicago Booth)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Alberto Martin (CREI)

The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Goethe Universität Frankfurt), Dirk Krueger (University of Pennsylvania), Andre Kurmann (Drexel University), Etienne Lale (UQAM), Alexander Ludwig (Goethe Universität Frankfurt), and Irina Popova (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University)

 1:30–2:00 pm  ***Lunch Break***
 2:00–4:00 pm

 Session 3: Distributional Impacts of the Pandemic

Chair: Petya Koeva Brooks (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)

Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Across the World Income Distribution
Titan Alon (University of California San Diego), Minki Kim (University of California San Diego), David Lagakos (Boston University), and Mitchell VanVuren (University of California San Diego)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Jonathan Heathcote (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) 

A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff
Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania), Eugenio Rojas (University of Florida), Linda Tesar (University of Michigan) and Jing Zhang (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Alessandra Fogli (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) 

The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID19 Pandemic
Olivier Coibion (University of Texas, Austin), Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley) and Michael Weber (University of Chicago)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Fernanda Nechio (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

 4:00–4:15 pm  ***Coffee Break***
 4:15–5:30 pm

Mundell-Fleming Lecture: International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to the Great Lockdown, and Beyond

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Management, University of California, Berkeley)

Introduction by Gita Gopinath (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

Friday, November 5, 2021

 9:00–10:00 am

Panel Discussion: Uncertainty and Restoring Confidence Following the Pandemic

Moderator: Martin Wolf (Financial Times)

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University)
Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics and Bank of England)

 10:00–10:30 am  ***Coffee Break***

Session 4: Supply Chains

Chair: Changyong Rhee (Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF)

Production Networks and Firm-level Elasticities of Substitution
Brian Cevallos Fujiy (University of Michigan), Devaki Ghose (The World Bank) and Gaurav Khanna (University of California, San Diego)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Ana Cecilia Fieler (Yale University)

Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China
Raphaël Lafrogne-Joussier (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique), Julien Martin (Université du Québec à Montréal) and Isabelle Mejean (CREST-Ecole Polytechnique)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Rudolfs Bems (IMF) Presentation

The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: Output Spillovers through Trade and Financial Linkages
Falk Bräuning (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) and Viacheslav Sheremirov (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Javier Cravino (University of Michigan)

 12:30–1:30 pm ***Lunch Break*** 
 1:30–3:00 pm

Session 5: Mitigation Policies

Chair: Tobias Adrian (Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)

The Effectiveness of Job-Retention Schemes: COVID-19 Evidence from the German States
Shekhar Aiyar (IMF) and Mai Dao (IMF)
Paper | Presentation
Discussant: Stéphane Carcillo (OECD)

The Distribution of Crisis Credit: Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk
Federico Huneeus (Central Bank of Chile), Joseph Kaboski (University of Notre Dame), Mauricio Larrain (PUC and CMF), Sergio Schmukler (The World Bank) and Mario Vera (CMF) Presentation
Discussant: Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF)

 3:00 pm Closing Remarks

Conference Organizing Committee: Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Andrei Levchenko (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan), Prachi Mishra (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), and Joannes Mongardini (IMF, Deputy Division Chief, Research Department).

Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Ariana Tayebi 

Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 22nd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.