Back to the Trend? Global Debt Evolution Before and After the Pandemic
September 13, 2023
IMF Conference
The latest update of the IMF’s Global Debt Database (GDD) documents that global debt continued to fluctuate in 2022 as it fell 10 percentage points of GDP for the second consecutive year to 238 percent of GDP. The fall in the last two years—which reversed about 2/3 of the 2020 surge in debt—is mainly explained by the rebound in economic activity, after a sharp contraction in the early stages of the pandemic, and massive inflation surprises. Private debt drove the overall decline last year, especially in advanced economies and in several emerging market economies, while debt in some countries—including China and many low-income developing countries—kept rising. After three years of riding a rollercoaster, the prospects for global debt point to a return to its long-term increasing trend, with China as a powerful force driving it. Against this backdrop, the roundtable will focus on the areas where debt-related risks are rising and how to address those risks.
Moderator:
David Lawder, Reuters
Presentation:
Vitor Gaspar, Director, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department
Panelists:
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research, J.P. Morgan’s Corporate and Investment Bank
Elena Duggar, Chief Credit Officer for the Americas/Managing Director in the Credit Strategy & Research team, Moody’s
Vitor Gaspar, Director, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department
Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel
