Global Financial Stability Report

The Global Financial Stability Report provides an assessment of the global financial system and markets, and addresses emerging market financing in a global context. It focuses on current market conditions, highlighting systemic issues that could pose a risk to financial stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. The Report draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF's World Economic Outlook. It contains, as special features, analytical chapters or essays on structural or systemic issues relevant to international financial stability.

Page: 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5

2024

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024 - Chapter 2 Available Now; Coming Soon: Chapter 3 (April 9 at 1PM ET) ; Chapter 1 (April 16, 10:15AM ET))

April 16, 2024

Description: Chapter 2 assesses vulnerabilities and potential risks to financial stability in corporate private credit, a rapidly growing asset class—traditionally focused on providing loans to midsize firms outside the realms of either commercial banks or public debt markets—that now rivals other major credit markets in size.

2023

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2023: Financial and Climate Policies for a High-Interest-Rate Era

October 10, 2023

Description: With core inflation still high in many advanced economies, central banks may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than is currently priced in markets. In emerging market economies, progress on lowering inflation appears to be more advanced, though there are discrepancies across regions. Yet, optimism about a “soft landing” of the global economy, whereby disinflation continues apace and a recession is avoided, has eased financial conditions since the April 2023 Global Financial Stability Report—stock markets have rallied, credit spreads have remained tight, and emerging market currencies have appreciated. Upside surprises to the inflation outlook would challenge the soft-landing narrative, resulting in a potentially sharp repricing of assets. While acute stress in the global banking system has subsided, a weak tail of banks remains in some countries. Cracks in other sectors may also become apparent and could turn into worrisome fault lines that would again test the resilience of the global financial system in the event of an abrupt tightening of financial conditions. Most notably, the global credit cycle has started to turn as borrowers’ debt repayment capacity diminishes and credit growth slows. Risks to global growth are therefore skewed to the downside, similar to the assessment in April.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2023: Safeguarding Financial Stability amid High Inflation and Geopolitical Risks

April 11, 2023

Description: Financial stability risks have increased rapidly as the resilience of the global financial system has faced a number of tests. Recent turmoil in the banking sector is a powerful reminder of the challenges posed by the interaction between tighter monetary and financial conditions and the buildup in vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis. The emergence of stress in financial markets complicates the task of central banks at a time when inflationary pressures are proving to be more persistent than anticipated. Large emerging markets have so far avoided adverse spillovers, but smaller and riskier economies continue to confront worsening debt sustainability trends.

2022

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022: Navigating the High-Inflation Environment

October 11, 2022

Description: Financial stability risks have increased amid the highest inflation in decades and the ongoing spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine to European and global energy markets. Amid poor market liquidity, there is a risk that a sudden, disorderly tightening in financial conditions may interact with preexisting vulnerabilities. In emerging markets, rising rates, weak fundamentals, and large outflows have pushed up borrowing costs, particularly for frontier economies, with a heightened risk of additional defaults. In China, the property downturn has deepened as sharp declines in home sales have exacerbated pressures on developers, with heightened risks of spillovers to the financial sector.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2022: Shockwaves from the War in Ukraine Test the Financial System’s Resilience

April 19, 2022

Description: Financial conditions have tightened and risks to the global economy have increased as a result of the war in Ukraine. Soaring commodity prices pose challenging trade-offs for central banks. Many emerging and frontier markets are facing especially difficult conditions. In China, financial vulnerabilities remain elevated amid ongoing stress in the property sector and new COVID-19 outbreaks. Central banks should act decisively to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched without jeopardizing the recovery and address financial vulnerabilities. Policymakers should intensify their efforts to implement the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) road map while taking appropriate steps to address energy security concerns.

2021

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2021

October 6, 2021

Description: Financial stability risks have been contained so far, reflecting ongoing policy support and a rebound in the global economy earlier this year. Chapter 1 explains that financial conditions have eased further in net in advanced economies but changed little in emerging markets. However, the optimism that propelled markets earlier in the year has faded on growing concerns about the strength of the global recovery, and ongoing supply chain disruptions intensified inflation concerns. Signs of stretched asset valuations in some market segments persist, and pockets of vulnerabilities remain in the nonbank financial sector; recovery is uneven in the corporate sector. Chapter 2 discusses the opportunities and challenges of the crypto ecosystem. Crypto asset providers’ lack of operational or cyber resilience poses risks, and significant data gaps imperil financial integrity. Crypto assets in emerging markets may accelerate dollarization risks. Chapter 3 shows that sustainable funds can support the global transition to a green economy but must be scaled up to have a major impact. It also discusses how a disorderly transition could disrupt the broader investment fund sector in the future.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021: Preempting a Legacy of Vulnerabilities

April 6, 2021

Description:

Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

2020

Global Financial Stability Report: Bridge to Recovery

October 13, 2020

Description: Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.

Page: 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5