In Search of Energy Security

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The current energy situation began during the coronavirus pandemic when demand for transportation fuels dropped, causing oil producers to slow investment and production, creating a supply crunch as demand recovered faster than supply.
Europe’s energy crisis is concentrated on the natural gas side and is linked to dependence on Russian natural gas amid transitions away from coal and toward renewables.
Europe’s native natural gas production has decreased, increasing reliance on Russian supply; with the invasion of Ukraine, many countries do not want to finance Russia’s war but still need Russian energy.

Unlike the 1970s oil crunch—where producers withheld oil—this crisis involves buyers refusing to purchase Russian oil.
This is the first global natural gas crisis: the rise of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has globalized gas markets, allowing a regional disruption to spread worldwide through LNG markets.
Europe’s heavy importation of LNG is raising prices globally, affecting markets such as Asia.

Some countries announce restarting coal plants to conserve natural gas for uses that are harder to decarbonize (e.g., high-heat industrial processes like glass manufacturing) or for home heating and industry.
Policymakers should treat the natural gas crisis as a driver of the energy transition, not an impediment; an energy system less dependent on fossil fuels is less susceptible to crises.
Expect potential short-term increases in emissions due to additional coal use, balanced against the necessity of maintaining economic activity.

Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a primary fuel; it is produced from other energy forms (e.g., electricity splitting water, or from natural gas with carbon sequestration).
Hydrogen is energy-dense and fuel-like in storage, transport, and combustion properties.
For efficiency reasons, hydrogen should not be used where the underlying energy source can be used directly.

With energy prices at a 14-year high, households who can afford it should pick up more of the burden to signal incentives for conservation and transitions (e.g., replacing gas furnaces with electric heat pumps).
There must be generous definitions of who needs help to protect vulnerable households from bearing the costs of geopolitical shocks.
Price signals are an effective way to reduce demand among those who can afford to respond.

Fuel prices are unaffordable for lower-income countries; they may struggle to obtain natural gas because Europe is absorbing a large percentage of the world’s LNG supply.
Governments in developing countries have less ability to subsidize energy for large vulnerable populations, increasing the risk of social unrest (examples cited: Argentina, Ecuador, Sri Lanka).
High costs across energy forms and equipment risk slowing low-carbon transitions in poorer countries.

A fragmented energy market is less secure for everyone; alliances and alienations risk increasing insecurity and higher prices.
Russia is unlikely to be viewed as a trustworthy energy provider going forward, prompting a likely preferential phaseout of Russian fuels.
Preferential phaseouts driven by politics could deepen market fragmentation, reducing global energy security.

The crisis is likely to have an especially profound economic impact on Russia, accelerating challenges from the energy transition for an economy dependent on fossil fuel exports.
For other countries, a key lesson is that less dependence on fossil fuels reduces exposure to geopolitical risks.
Renewable and zero-carbon electricity systems create more localized energy systems that are less entangled in geopolitics and enhance energy security.

In Search of Energy Security — F&D Magazine, December 2022; Samantha Gross interviewed by Marjorie Henriquez.