Opening Remarks at “Policymaking in Choppy Waters: Fostering Resilience in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe”
June 2, 2023
Expecting the Unexpected: Strengthening Fiscal Risk Management in the Middle East and North Africa
June 2, 2023
FY2024-FY2026 Medium-Term Budget
June 2, 2023
FY2024-FY2026 Medium-Term Budget
Measuring Multinational Production with Foreign Direct Investment Statistics: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Developments
June 2, 2023
In a complex global production landscape, the quest for measures of economic activity by multinational enterprises (MNEs) has become more pressing. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) statistics, which capture financing aspects of MNEs, have often been used as a proxy for multinational production given their wide availability and cross-country comparability, but concerns that multinational production occurs in different countries than where financial positions are recorded call this practice into question. This paper revisits the main objections to the use of FDI as a proxy for multinational production, explores counterarguments, and provides guidance on the use of FDI statistics to measure multinational production.
Benin: Technical Assistance Report-Governance Diagnostic
June 2, 2023
At the request of the authorities of the Republic of Benin (“Benin”), a team consisting of multiple IMF departments (FAD, LEG and MCM) conducted a governance diagnostic mission from June 7 to September 27, 2022. In keeping with the IMF’s 2018 Framework for Enhanced Engagement on Governance, the diagnostic focused on weaknesses in governance and vulnerabilities to corruption in areas deemed to be macro-critical, including: (i) contract execution and protection of property rights; (ii) the legal and institutional framework for anti-corruption efforts; (iii) Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT); (iv) financial sector supervision; and (v) public finance governance (tax policy, tax and customs administration, public financial management).
Cars and the Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers
June 2, 2023
Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major changes in vehicle manufacturing activity, on which many livelihoods in Europe depend. Using the heterogeneity across European countries in the speed of transition to EV production and variation in sectoral and regional exposure to the automotive sector, this paper offers early evidence of the labor market implications of the EV transition. Our results suggest that the transformation of the auto sector is already having an adverse impact on employment in the affected sectors and regions, which can be expected to grow at least in the near term. Many of the affected workers will be able to retire and our analysis suggests that those who will have to transition to new “greener” jobs have a fair chance to do so when compared to other workers in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we find evidence that active labor market policies, specifically training, can help to reduce the adjustment costs for the affected workers.
Fiscal Anatomy of Two Crises and an Interlude
June 2, 2023
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with the largest increases in public debt ratios since World War II. We decompose unexpected changes in debt ratios into the role of surprises in economic growth, interest costs, policy measures, and other factors. During both crises, lower-than-expected output contributed the most to higher-than-expected debt ratios. Fiscal policy measures recorded in the public deficit were similar in the two episodes. We also analyze the decade-long interlude (2010-19). Rather than declining as foreseen in a normative scenario, debt ratios remained stable on average, as interest rates, policy adjustment and, in some countries, economic growth turned out lower than expected.
The Distributional and Fiscal Implications of Public Utility Pricing
June 2, 2023
The setting of public utility prices involves balancing various competing government policy objectives, from equity concerns to ensuring the financial sustainability of providers and balancing public finances. In practice, public utility pricing often departs significantly from government objectives and tends to be characterized by unnecessarily complex price schedules, below cost-recovery tariff rates, and sectoral inefficiencies that contribute to large fiscal costs. Countries commonly embark on utility pricing reform in response to these heavy fiscal pressures. The paper discusses various reform options available to governments, with a focus on residential pricing schedules, highlighting their fiscal, financial, redistributive, and efficiency implications.
Macroprudential Policy and Bank Systemic Risk: Does Inflation Targeting Matter?
June 2, 2023
This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to complementarities between monetary and macroprudential policies. We find that the tightening of most macroprudential tools—including DSTI and LTV limits, and capital requirements—reduces bank systemic risk further under inflation targeting. Our findings lend credence to the view that inflation targeting strengthens macroprudential policy roles in mitigating financial stability risks.