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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting. It emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Read More Topic : Monetary Exchange Rate and Capital Account Policies

    Target Audience

    Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

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    Qualifications

    Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course or the online Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course. Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

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    Course Objectives

    Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

    • Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
    • Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
    • Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
    • Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
    • Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
    • Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.
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    Syllabus

    This two-week course aims at providing participants a rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting with an emphasis on analyzing monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools needed to develop and/or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participants’ understanding and to help them compare, contrast, and assess various experiences.
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    Upcoming Offering

    Start date End date Location Session No. Primary & (Interpretation) language Apply
    October 12, 2020 October 23, 2020 Singapore, Singapore ST 20.25 English Cancelled
    November 30, 2020 December 11, 2020 Vienna, Austria JV 20.38V English Apply online by October 4, 2020
    February 8, 2021 February 12, 2021 Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic OT 21.08V Spanish Invitation
    February 22, 2021 March 5, 2021 Harare, Zimbabwe OT 21.14V English Invitation
    March 22, 2021 April 2, 2021 Ebene, Mauritius AT 21.05V English (French) Invitation
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    Apply Now - Application deadline approaching:

    IMF offers online training to government officials and public. Click Learn more to find our current offerings.

    Virtual - Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS)

    English, November 2-6, 2020, Vienna, Austria

    Apply online by September 20, 2020

    Virtual - Financial Development and Financial Inclusion (FDFI)

    English, November 16-27, 2020, Singapore, Singapore

    Apply online by September 21, 2020

    Virtual - Economic Issues in Regional Integration (ERI)

    English (French), October 12-23, 2020, Ebene, Mauritius

    Apply online by September 23, 2020

    Virtual - Fiscal Frameworks (FF)

    English (French), October 26, 2020 - November 6, 2020, Ebene, Mauritius

    Apply online by September 23, 2020

    Virtual - Financial Sector Policies (FSP)

    English (French), November 9-20, 2020, Ebene, Mauritius

    Apply online by September 25, 2020