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Fiscal Policy

Tax Revenue Forecasting and Analysis (TRFA)


Session No.: SA 23.21

Location: New Delhi, India

Date: June 12-16, 2023 (1 week)

Delivery Method: In-person Training

Primary Language: English

    Target Audience

    Government officials and others working in the Ministry of Finance, Strategic Planning Ministries and Central bank, who are dealing with the revenue forecasting and related expenditure planning functions, including those who will potentially be handling such roles in future assignments.

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    The participant should have at least five years' professional experience in a revenue or revenue-related expenditure planning function. The sponsoring organization should ensure that the nominated officer possesses a basic understanding of statistical concepts.

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    Participants should be nominated by the designated sponsoring agency in the Ministry or other Government organization.

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    Course Description

    This is an introductory course designed for public sector staff who are interested in learning about the theory and practice of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis. The course offers hands-on learning that will help staff build foundational knowledge on the different quantitative models and techniques that can be used to forecast revenues and undertake tax policy analysis, while also exploring related issues such as the features of a sound institutional framework and the key principles of tax policymaking. The course does not presume the audience is familiar with forecasting concepts but does require a basic understanding of statistical concepts.

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    Course Objectives

    The course is intended to be a hands-on practical workshop that enables staff to:

    • Analyze fundamental principles and trends in tax revenue analysis.
    • Explain the key features of an effective institutional framework for revenue forecasting.
    • Identify data requirements and recognize potential data issues.
    • Recognize the strengths and limitations of different forecasting methods.
    • Use the adequate model(s) to quantify the impact of tax policy changes, including input-output tables and micro-simulation models.

    The course will feature an introductory short test to appraise participants' basic knowledge on the forecasting. Throughout the course, participants will undertake practical exercises during each of the different sessions comprising the course. At the end of the course, participants will undertake a final test.

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