Nowcasting (NWC)
Deadline passed
Session No.: ST 22.31
Location: Singapore, Singapore
Date: December 1-9, 2022 (1 week) New dates
Primary Language: English
Target Audience
Junior and middle-level officials from Ministries of Finance, Central Banks, and other interested public institutions.
Qualifications
Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience, a basic understanding of time-series econometrics and be comfortable using EViews (econometric software package). It is strongly recommended that applicants havecompleted a few general macroeconomic courses, such as Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis (MFA), Macroeconomic Diagnostic (MDS), face-to-face or online.
Course Description
Nowcasting refers to the practice of using recently published data to update key economic indicators that are published with a significant lag, such as real GDP. The aim of this course is to familiarize participants with cutting-edge nowcasting tools that facilitate the use mixed-frequency data in regression models. The course begins by establishing the importance of nowcasting for more timely and appropriate policy formulation during crisis periods such as the GFC or COVID-19. It then reviews the standard nowcasting regression-based procedures available, including the BRIDGE, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators, both with and without dynamic factors. The course also reviews the more general state-space/Kalman filter approach to formulating and estimating a nowcasting model with mixed-frequency data. Procedures for combining nowcasts from the distinct models are considered, along with statistical procedures for evaluating the accuracy of a sequence of nowcasts. Each topic is complemented by a hands-on workshops and assignment using country-specific data using the EViews econometric package. The workshops and assignments are an integral component of the course designed to illuminate the actual steps required to generate a nowcast.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators useful for the nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise.
- Formulate and estimate a nowcasting regression using several approaches.
- Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts.
- Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators.
- Apply the nowcasting tools to their country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policy making settings.
Collections and Arrears Management (CAM)
English, February 27, 2023 - March 3, 2023, New Delhi, India
Apply online by February 9, 2023
Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS)
English, May 8-19, 2023, Singapore, Singapore
Apply online by February 10, 2023
Quarterly National Accounts and High Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity (QNAx)
English, February 13, 2023 - March 31, 2023, Course conducted online
Apply online by February 10, 2023
Virtual : Legal Aspects of International Financial Institutions (LAIF)
English (French), March 6-10, 2023, Ebene, Mauritius
Apply online by February 15, 2023