China’s Growing Bond Market in a Global Context
Sixth Joint Conference
People’s Bank of China and International Monetary Fund
April 27, 2018
China’s fast-growing bond market, already third largest in the world, is getting a lot of attention both at home and abroad. A further healthy development of its bond market will ensure that resources are channeled to the most productive part of the economy and allow for a diversification of asset.
The opening of China’s interbank bond market to foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds in 2015—prior to the inclusion of the RMB in the IMF’s basket of special drawing rights (SDR)—has facilitated cross-border investment. So has the establishment of the Hong Kong–Shanghai Bond Connect at the beginning of 2017. The inclusion of China in global bond indices would further boost these developments.
But as one might expect, there are challenges. China’s bond market is fragmented and lacks liquidity, and further developments depend heavily on complementary reforms. These range from measures to strengthen the sovereign yield curve, the removal of implicit guarantees to allow for better pricing of risk, moving to an interest rate-based monetary policy framework, and better communication. Here, the international experience can provide some guidance.
Although China’s bond market has many unique characteristics, given its size, its development also needs to be analyzed in the context of global issues. This includes the normalization of interest rates in advanced economies, and possible spillovers and spillbacks.
These issues will be the focus of this year’s joint PBC/IMF conference bringing together all the relevant agencies, that is, the CBRC, CSRC, CIRC, NDRC, and MOF. Joining the conference will be Chinese and international academics, policymakers, private financial institutions, PBC and IMF staff.
The conference is by invitation only. But given the broad interest in this topic, its insights will be published in a forthcoming book both in English and Chinese.
|
Thursday April 26 |
|
|
18:30-20:00 |
Dinner Reception Dinner hosted by the IMF Location: Ritz Carlton TBA Speaker: ZHU Min, President, National Institute of Financial Research, Tsinghua University and former Deputy Managing Director, IMF |
|
Friday April 27 |
|
|
8:45—9:00 |
Opening remarks PAN Gongsheng, Deputy Governor, People’s Bank of China |
|
9:00–10:30 |
Session I: The Global Setting Moderator: ZHU Min, President, National Institute of Financial Research, Tsinghua University and former Deputy Managing Director, IMF Speakers (10–15 minutes each): Maurice Obstfeld, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF Normalization of Monetary Policy and Bond Markets Tomoya Masano, Co- head of Asia Pacific Portfolio Management, PIMCO Global Bond Markets: Trends and Medium-term Challenges Michael Hasenstab, Global Fund Manager, Franklin Templeton Global Bond Markets and Implications for China Discussion |
|
10:30—10:45 |
Coffee break |
|
10:45–12:15 |
Session II: China’s Bond Market Characteristics Moderator: Alfred Schipke, Senior Resident Representative for China, IMF Speakers (10–15 minutes each): GAO Fei, Deputy Director General, Financial Market Department, People’s Bank of China China’s Interbank Bond Market LU Dabiao, Deputy Director-General, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) China’s Corporate Bond Market CHEN Hongwan, Director General, Fiscal and Financial Affairs Department, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) China’s Enterprise Bond Market WANG Kebing, Deputy Director General, Budgetary Department, Ministry of Finance China’s rapidly growing local government bond market Discussion |
|
12:15-14:00 |
Lunch Location: Ballroom 1, 2nd Floor Speaker: Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF Outlook for Global Financial Stability: A Bumpy Road Ahead |
|
14:00—17:15 |
Session III: Reforming China’s Bond Market |
|
14:00-15:30 |
Part I: Moderator: LI Wenhong, Director General, Banking Innovations Supervision Department, MIAO Hui, Senior Financial Sector Expert, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF Financial stability risks in the bond market: IMF's FSAP recommendations Becky LIU, Head of China Macro Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank Clearing Roadblocks to Foreign Participation GUO Kai, Deputy Director General, International Department, People’s Bank of China China’s Bond Market Development: A Roadmap
Sally Chen, Resident Representative and Kevin Chow, Economist both Hong Kong, SAR and ZHANG, Longmei, Deputy Resident Representative, China China’s Yield Curve Speakers (10–15 minutes each): Discussion |
|
15:30—15:45 |
Coffee break |
|
15:45-17:15 |
Part II: Moderator: GUO Kai, Deputy Director General, International Department, People’s Bank of China Speakers (10–15 minutes each): ZHANG Longmei, Deputy Resident Representative, IMF and WU Yuchen, Economist, Peking University and IMF Credit Markets W. Raphael Lam, Senior Economist, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Local Government Bond Market: Risks and Opportunities ZHU Ning, Professor of Economics, Tsinghua University Addressing Implicit Government Guarantees Michael McMahon, Professor of Economics, Oxford University; Alfred Schipke, Senior Resident Representative, IMF, and Xiang LI, Economist, Peking University and IMF Policy Announcements and Communication Discussion |
|
17:15—18:15 |
Concluding roundtable The panel discussion will draw on key insights from the day’s discussions. Panel members will summarize the main take-always of the two sessions, with a focus on potential lessons for China. Moderator: MA Jun, Director, Center for Finance and Development, Tsinghua University Panelists: LI Bo, Director General, Monetary Policy Department, People’s Bank of China ZHU Guangyao, Vice Minister of Finance, China HUANG Yiping, Professor, Peking University FANG Xinghai, Vice-Chairperson, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Bryan Collins, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, FIL Asia Holdings Pte Limited |
|
18:15—18:30 |
Closing remarks Markus Rodlauer, Deputy Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF |
|
18:30—20:30 |
Dinner Reception Dinner hosted by People’s Bank of China |