23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

The Global Economy: Looking Back, Moving Forward

November 10-11, 2022

The International Monetary Fund will hold the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference at its headquarters in Washington DC on November 10-11, 2022.

The theme of this year's conference is “The Global Economy: Looking Back, Moving Forward.” The conference will provide a forum for discussing innovative research on a wide range of topics relevant to the global economy and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers. 

This year’s conference will honor Maurice Obstfeld’s contributions to economic research and policy. Obstfeld is the preeminent scholar of international economics. Before joining the faculty at the University of California, Berkeley, he held appointments at Columbia University, the University of Pennsylvania, and Harvard University. During 2015-2018 he served as the Chief Economist of the IMF, and in 2014-2015 he was a Member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors. The conference will bring together an outstanding array of economists and policymakers, many of whom were Obstfeld’s students, colleagues, or collaborators. Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) will deliver the Mundell-Fleming Lecture.

Agenda

Thursday, November 10, 2022

9:00–9:20 am

Opening Remarks by Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF) and Gita Gopinath (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)

9:20–10:50 am

Session 1: Currency Areas and the Dominance of the US Dollar

Chair: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF)

Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity
Katheryn Russ (University of California, Davis), Jay Shambaugh (George Washington University), and Sanjay R. Singh (University of California, Davis)
Discussant: Andrew Rose (NUS Business School)

The Dollar's Imperial Circle
Gianluca Benigno (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Ozge Akinci (Federal Bank of New York), Serra Pelin (University of California, Berkeley), and Jon Turek (JST Advisors)
Discussant: Ryan Chahrour (Cornell University)

10:50–11:00 am ***Coffee Break***

11:00–12:30 pm

Session 2: The Fiscal-Monetary Mix in the Post-Covid-19 Era

Chair: Vitor Gaspar (Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF)

The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target
Hélène Rey (London Business School) and Michele Andreolli (London Business School)
Discussant: Olivier Blanchard (Peterson Institute)

Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability
Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute) and Bartosz Mackowiak (European Central Bank)
Discussant: Luisa Lambertini (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne

12:30–2:00 pm ***Lunch Break***

2:00–3:30 pm

Session 3: International Trade and the Macroeconomy

Chair: Ilan Goldfajn (Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF)

International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions
Fabio Ghironi (University of Washington), Daisoon Kim (North Carolina State University), and Galip Kemal Ozhan (Bank of Canada)
Discussant: Linda Tesar (University of Michigan)

The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms
Julian di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and John Rogers (Fudan University)
Discussant: Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia Business School)

3:30–3:45 pm ***Coffee Break***

3:45–5:00 pm

Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits
Linda S. Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Introduction by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

Friday, November 11, 2022

9:15–10:45 am

Session 4: Financial Liberalization and Macro-Financial Linkages in   Emerging Market Economies

Chair: Charles Collyns (Director, Independent Evaluation Office, IMF)

The international liberalization of China's equity markets: Financial and real implications for firms
Juan Cortina (World Bank), Sergio Schmukler (World Bank), Jasmine Xiao (Notre Dame University), Sole Martinez-Peria (International Monetary Fund)
Discussant: Michael Klein (Tufts University)

Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants, and Disconnect
Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund) and Haonan Zhou (Princeton University)
Discussant: Kenneth Froot (Harvard University)

10:45–11:00 am ***Coffee Break***
11:00–12:30pm

Policy Panel

Moderator: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

Panelists:
Jason Furman (Harvard Kennedy School)
Philip Lane (European Central Bank)
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley)
Carmen Reinhart (Harvard Kennedy School)

12:30–2:00 pm ***Lunch Break***
2:00–3:30 pm

Session 5: Global Trends in Interest Rates and Credit

Chair: Tobias Adrian (Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)

Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311-2021
Ken Rogoff (Harvard University), Barbara Rossi (University of Pompeu Fabra), Paul Schmelzing (BC Carroll School and Hoover Institution Stanford)
Discussant: Andrés Velasco (London School of Economics)

Many Creditors, One Large Debtor: Understanding the Buildup of Global Stock Imbalances after the Global Financial Crisis
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (The Brookings Institution)
Discussant: Emine Boz (International Monetary Fund)

3:30–3:45 pm ***Coffee Break***
3:45–4:00 pm Tribute to Robert Mundell by Maurice Obstfeld
4:00–5:30 pm

Session 6: The Macroeconomic Costs of Rare Events

Chair: Dominique Desruelle (Director, Institute for Capacity Development, IMF)

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
Alan M. Taylor (University of California, Davis), Òscar Jordà (University of California, Davis), Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn)
Discussant: Eswar Prasad (Cornell University)

Climate Risks and exchange rates
Galina Hale (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Discussant: Oya Celasun (International Monetary Fund)

5:30 pm Closing Remarks

Conference Organizing Committee: Nina Biljanovska (IMF), Andrei Levchenko (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan), Prachi Mishra (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), and Damiano Sandri (IMF)

Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo, Jing DiBerardino, Nicole Jales, and Daniela Rojas

Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.