Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa, October 22, 2020

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Sub-Saharan Africa is contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis that, in just a few months, has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.
The current outlook for 2020–21 is broadly unchanged from the June update.
The region’s outlook will be shaped by the availability of additional financing and transformative domestic reforms to promote resilience (including revenue mobilization, digitalization, and fostering better transparency and governance), lift medium-term growth, create opportunities for a wave of new job seekers, and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Activity in 2020 projected to contract by 3.0 percent, still the worst outcome on record.
For 2021, regional growth should recover modestly to 3.1 percent.

The outlook is subject to key downside risks, particularly regarding the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resilience of the region’s health systems.
These risks are compounded by uncertainty on the availability of external financing.
Associated financing needs are estimated at about $900 billion over 2020–23, of which sources between $130 billion and $410 billion are unidentified.

Mobilize additional external financing to fill identified gaps and support recovery.
Implement transformative domestic reforms to:
- Promote resilience, including strengthening health systems.
- Increase revenue mobilization.
- Accelerate digitalization.
- Foster better transparency and governance.
Focus reforms to lift medium-term growth and create opportunities for new job seekers, supporting progress toward the SDGs.

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa — October 2020

Backgroundpaper
- Backgroundpaper (Markdown version)
- Backgroundpaper (PDF)
Executive Summary
- Executive Summary (Markdown version)
- Executive Summary (PDF)