World Economic Outlook

Asset Prices and the Business Cycle

May 2000

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©2000 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I.
348k pdf file
Prospects and Policy Challenges
How Much Longer Will the Expansion in North
   America Continue?
Reenergizing the Japanese Recovery
Recovery and Divergence in Europe
Recovery in Latin America: Emerging But Still
Recovery in Asia-Pacific: The Momentum Increases
Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States
   (CIS): Growth, But Uncertain Prospects for
   Sustained Recovery
Countries on the European Union Accession Track
Middle East and Africa: Stronger But Narrowly-
   Based Growth
Poverty and Globalization
Chapter II.
368k pdf file
The Ongoing Recovery in Emerging Market Economies
Financial Conditions Facing Emerging Market Economies
Commodity Market Developments
Policy Responses and Vulnerabilities in Latin America
Improved Outlook in East Asia, But Policy Challenges
Chapter III.
340k pdf file
Asset Prices and the Business Cycle
What Drives Stock Prices?
Property Prices
Transmission Channels from Asset Prices to
   Economic Activity
Asset Prices and Financial Fragility
Policy Issues
Current Challenges in the Euro Area and in the
   United States
Chapter IV.
308k pdf file
How Can the Poorest Countries Catch Up?
Income Growth and Poverty Reduction:
   The Recent History
Obstacles to Growth
Debt Burden and Debt Relief
The Enhanced HIPC Initiative: The Road to
The New Approach to Poverty Reduction
Chapter V.
268k pdf file
The World Economy in the Twentieth Century: Striking Developments And Policy Lessons
Global Economic Growth and Income Distribution
The Role and Development of the International
   Monetary System
The Changing Role of the Public Sector
Some Global Challenges Ahead
164k pdf file
Summing Up by the Acting Chairman

Statistical Appendix
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries

412k pdf file    List of Appendix Tables
   Output (Tables 1-7)
   Inflation (Tables 8-13)
   Financial Policies (Tables 14-21)
   Foreign Trade (Tables 22-26)
   Current Account Transactions (Tables 27-32)
   Balance of Payments and External Financing
      (Tables 33-37)
   External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38-43)
   Flow of Funds (Table 44)
   Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45-46)

1.1 An Alternative Scenario
1.2 Revisions in National Accounts Methodologies
1.3 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Countries
1.4 The Pros and Cons of Dollarization
2.1 Turkey's IMF-Supported Disinflation Program
2.2 Cycles in Nonfuel Commodity Prices
2.3 Booms and Slumps in the World Oil Market
3.1 Productivity and Stock Prices in the United States: Are Recent Trends Sustainable
3.2 Global Liquidity and Asset Prices
4.1 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers
4.2 India: Reinvigorating the Reform Process
4.3 Social Spending, Poverty Reduction, and Debt Relief in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
5.1 Trends in the Human Development Index
5.2 The Monetary System and Growth During the Commercial Revolution
A.1 Revised Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook

  1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  1.2 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  1.3 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
  1.4 Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  1.5 Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  1.6 Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  2.1 Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
  2.2 Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
  2.3 General Government Balance
  2.4 External Debt
  2.5 Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand: Sources of Changes in the Fiscal Balance
  2.6 Gross Public Debt in the East Asian Countries
  3.1 Estimates of Potential Stock Market Overvaluation
  3.2 Correlations between Deviations of Actual from Predicted Stock Prices for a Selected Group of Countries, 1985-1999
  3.3 Outstanding Residential Mortgage Debt as a Share of GDP in European Countries
  3.4 Asset Prices as a Leading Indicator of Real GDP and Output Gap
  3.5 Household Equity Holdings as a Percent of Net Wealth
  3.6 Bank Real Estate Lending in Selected Countries
  3.7 Change in Fiscal Balances and Output Growth in the Euro Area
  4.1 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Average Per Capita Income Growth, 1970-98
  4.2 Developing and Advanced Economies: Education and Health Indicators
  4.3 Developing and Advanced Economies: Macroeconomic Stability
  4.4 Developing and Advanced Economies: Political Stability and Institutions
  4.5 Developing and Advanced Economies: Financial Maturity and Deepening
  4.6 Developing and Advanced Economies: Globalization and Trade Openness
  4.7 Developing and Advanced Economies: Globalization and Trade Volumes and Prices
  4.8 Developing Countries: Poverty and Poverty Reduction
  4.9 HIPCs: Selected Debt Indicators
  4.10 HIPCs: Economic Indicators
  5.1 Changes in Nations' Relative Income Position: 1900-2000
  5.2 Regional GDP per Capita as a Percent of Leading Nation
  5.3 Dispersion of Alternative Measures of Development
  5.4 Public Sector Expenditure Ratios: Total and Transfers

  1.1 Global Indicators
  1.2 Selected Countries: Net Financial Balances
  1.3 Selected European Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
  1.4 Selected Latin American and Asian Economies: Real GDP Growth
  2.1 Emerging Market Economies: Equity Price
  2.2 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
  2.3 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Short-Term Interest Rates
  2.4 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Eurobond Yield Spreads and Brady Bond Spreads
  2.5 Prices of Crude Petroleum and Nonfuel Commodities
  2.6 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Quarterly Real GDP
  2.7 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Claims on Private Sector
  2.8 Selected Latin American and East Asian Economies: Balance of Trade
  2.9 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Real Effective Exchange Rates
  2.10 Selected East Asian and Latin American Economies: Current Account Balance
  2.11 Selected Emerging Market Economies: Total Reserves Excluding Gold
  3.1 Industrial Countries: Output Gap, Real Property Price Change, and Real Equity Price Change
  3.2 Industrial Countries: Real Stock Prices and Real GDP
  3.3 Industrial Countries: Price-Earnings Ratios
  3.4 Industrial Countries: Real Property Prices and Output Gap
  3.5 Industrial Countries: Real Property Prices and Real Interest Rates
  3.6 Industrial Countries: Real Property Prices and Real GDP
  3.7 Industrial Countries: Bank Credit, Real Property Prices, and Net Private Savings
  3.8 Industrial Countries: Real Stock Prices, Real Property Prices, and Real Private Fixed Investment
  3.9 Industrial Countries: Private Investment
  3.10 Industrial Countries: Equity Prices
  3.11 United States: Economic Indicators
  3.12 United States: Interest Rates
  4.1 Advanced and Developing Economies: Per Capita Income
  4.2 Developing Countries: Grouped by Per Capita Income Growth, 1970-98
  4.3 Developing Countries: Population Living Below $1 per Day
  4.4 Developing Countries: Investment and Saving
  4.5 Developing Countries: Per Capita GDP Growth and Incremental Output-Capital Ratio
  4.6 Developing Countries: Economic Indicators
  5.1 World GDP and Population Since 1750
  5.2 Stylized Population Dynamics
  5.3 Factors Underlying Population Growth
  5.4 Differential Income Growth
  5.5 World Lorenz Curve, 1900 and 2000
  5.6 Contraction of World Trade, 1929-33
  5.7 Net Flow of Investment to Developing Countries
  5.8 Capital Account Restrictions, 1950-98
  5.9 Government Deficits, Inflation, and Unemployment in the Group of Seven Countries
 World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–2000