IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2004

World Economic Outlook, September 29, 2004

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2004

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Bibliographic details

Published: September 29, 2004
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview

Title: The Global Demographic Transition
Date: September 2004
Description: "The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities."
Format notes: Multiple PDF files referenced with exact sizes (e.g., "49 kb pdf file", "493 kb pdf file", "412 kb pdf file", "282 kb pdf file", "26 kb pdf file", "294 kb pdf file", "50 kb pdf file").

Key Chapters and Thematic Coverage

Preface; Foreword; Assumptions and Conventions.
Chapter I. Economic Prospects and Policy Issues
- United States and Canada: How Long Will the U.S. Soft Patch Persist?
- Western Europe: A Solidifying, but Uneven, Recovery
- Japan: Is Deflation Finally Coming to an End?
- Emerging Asia: Prospects Are Bright but Can Macroeconomic Policies Rise to the Challenges?
- Latin America: Will the Economic Rebound Be Used to Build Resilience?
- Emerging Europe: Will the Recovery Be Used to Address Fiscal Vulnerabilities?
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Maintaining Stability During a Commodity Boom
- Africa: Can Improved Economic Performance Be Sustained?
- Middle East: Fiscal Consolidation Challenges Ahead
- Appendix 1.1 Commodity Markets
- References
Chapter II. Three Current Policy Issues
- The Global House Price Boom
- Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries Since the Early 1990s
- Has Fiscal Behavior Changed Under the European Economic and Monetary Union?
- Appendices 2.1–2.4 (methodology, data, monetary policy rules, fiscal reaction functions)
Chapter III. How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy?
- Changing Structure of the World's Population
- Economic Impact of Demographic Change
- Policies to Meet the Challenges of Global Demographic Change
- Appendix 3.1 Demographic Change and the Global Economy: Data and Modeling Strategy
- Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair

Statistical Appendix and Tables

"Statitistical Appendix" (26 kb pdf file)
"Assumptions" (294 kb pdf file) including:
- What's New
- Data and Conventions
- Classifications of Countries
- List of Tables
Tables covering: Output (Tables 1-6); Inflation (Tables 7-11); Financial Policies (Tables 12-19); Foreign Trade (Tables 20-24); Current Account Transactions (Tables 25-31); Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32-36); External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37-42); Flow of Funds (Table 43); Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44-45)
Additional table listings: World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics; Boxes; A1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
Selected tables referenced by name, e.g., "Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections"; "Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment"; "Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows"; "Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt"; and multiple region- and country-specific tables (exact titles preserved).

Boxes and Special Topics

Chapter- and report-level boxes (exact titles preserved):
- 1.1 Is Global Inflation Coming Back?
- 1.2 What are the Risks of Slower Growth in China?
- 1.3 Is the Doha Round Back on Track?
- 1.4 Regional Trade Agreements and Integration: The Experience with NAFTA
- 1.5 Bringing Small Entrepreneurs into the Formal Economy
- 1.6 Governance Challenges and Progress in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 2.1 What Explains the Recent Run-Up in House Prices?
- 2.2 Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What Influences Country's Choices?
- 2.3 How Did Chile, India, and Brazil Learn to Float?
- 2.4 Foreign Exchange Market Development and Intervention
- 2.5 Trade and Financial Integration in Europe: Five Years After the Euro's Introduction
- 3.1 Demographic Projections: Methodologies and Uncertainties
- 3.2 How Will Population Aging Affect Financial Markets?
- 3.3 HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal Consequences
- 3.4 Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care Systems
- 3.5 Impact of Aging on Public Pension Plans
- A1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

Figures and Analytical Visuals (selected titles preserved)

Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Trade Gains and Losses from Commodity Price Movements Between 2003 and 2004; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; Global Exchange Rate Developments; Global Outlook; Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries; Fiscal Vulnerability Indicators; United States: House Prices; United States: Interest Rates; European Union: Fiscal Challenges; Japan: The End of Deflation?; Emerging Asia: Current Account Surpluses Remain Strong; Latin America: Trade Share Rising, But Scope for Further Reduction in Restrictiveness
Detailed figures related to oil, commodities, house prices, exchange rates, fiscal behavior, demographic projections, and model implications, including:
- Global Demographic Transition, 1700-2050
- Key Demographic Trends, 1950-2050
- Where the World's Population Lives
- Population Structures, 1950-2050
- Uncertainty in Population Projections
- Per Capita Growth and Working-Age Population
- Impact of Demographic Change in Growth and Current Account Balances, 2000-50
- Implications of Projected Demographic Change in the INGENUE Model
- Some Policy Responses to a Declining Labor Force in Advanced Economies
- Life Expectancy and Age of Retirement for Males in Selected Advanced Economies
- Impact of Pension Reforms in Europe in the INGENUE Model
- The Last Train for Pension Reform Departs in...
- Implications of Labor and Capital Mobility for Per Capita Consumption, 2000-60
- Implications of a 1 Percentage Point Decline in Developing Country Risk Premium in the MSG3

Models, Methodologies, and Appendices

Appendix 2.1–2.4: econometric and methodological appendices for house prices, floating exchange rates, euro-area monetary rules, and fiscal reaction functions.
Appendix 3.1: "Demographic Change and the Global Economy: Data and Modeling Strategy"
References to panel instrumental variable regressions, multiple-generations models, INGENUE model, MSG3 model, and country composition of demographic zones (exact terminology preserved).

Access and Supplementary Materials

"Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference" dated September 29, 2004.
"Reports and Related Links: English Read More"
Note: "Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files."
Email notification sign-up and profile modification links referenced.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2004

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- September 2004

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Overview

Key Chapters and Thematic Coverage

Statistical Appendix and Tables

Boxes and Special Topics

Figures and Analytical Visuals (selected titles preserved)

Models, Methodologies, and Appendices

Access and Supplementary Materials

Content in this bundle

References