IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Financial Systems and Economic Cycles, September 2006

World Economic Outlook, September 14, 2006

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Financial Systems and Economic Cycles, September 2006

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Bibliographic details

Authors: External Shocks
Published: September 14, 2006
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview and Purpose

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.
It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.
It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
Technical information and user services referenced: Using PDF Files; Using CSV Files; Viewing Webcasts; Email notification sign-up; Modify your profile.

Contents and Structure

File size noted: 89 kb
Main front matter:
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Preface
- Foreword
- Executive Summary

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues
- Full Text | Boxes | Charts
- Sections: Global Economic Environment; Outlook and Short-Term Risks; Unwinding Global Imbalances; Policy Challenges
- Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in Commodity Markets
- References

Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
- Full Text |Boxes | Charts
- Regional and country headings include:
- United States and Canada: Inflationary Pressures Are Beginning to Rise
- Western Europe: Structural Reforms Remain the Key to Stronger Growth
- Japan: Monetary Policy Adjusts to the End of Deflation
- Emerging Asia: China's Growth Spurt Benefits the Region but Carries Risks
- Latin America: Continuing to Build Resilience
- Emerging Europe: Managing Risks From Heavy Reliance on Foreign Savings
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing Large Foreign Currency Inflows
- Africa: Strong Growth Continues Despite High Oil Prices
- Middle East: Living with Booming Oil Exports

Chapter 3. Asia Rising: Patterns of Economic Development and Growth
- Full Text | Summary | Video Briefing | Boxes | Charts
- Sections: Asia's Economic Success; Perspiration or Inspiration?; Sectoral Effects: Cross-Sector Shifts or Within-Sector Growth?; Policy Determinants of Productivity Growth; Conclusions
- Appendix 3.1 Asia Rising: Methods and Additional Results

Chapter 4. How Do Financial Systems Affect Economic Cycles?
- Sections: How Have Financial Systems Changed?; How Do Differences in Financial Systems Affect the Behavior of Households Firms, and Cross-Border Capital Flows?
- Appendix 4.1 Building the Financial Index
- Appendix 4.2 Econometric Methodology

Chapter 5. The Boom in NonFuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last?
- Sections: Long-Term Trends in Commodity Prices and Volatility; Assessment of Recent Developments; Role of Emerging Markets; Will the Recent Run-Up in Metals Prices Be Sustained?; Outlook for Food and Other Agricultural Commodities
- Appendix 5.1 Model of Aluminum and Copper Markets
- Appendix 5.2 Modeling the Relationship Between Speculation and Commodity Prices

Annexes and Statistical Appendix
- Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, August 2006
- Statistical Appendix: Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook; Classification
- Tables covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, External Debt and Debt Service, Flow of Funds, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario, and selected topic tables.

Analytical Features and Supporting Materials

Boxes (selected):
- Chapter 1 Boxes: 1.1 Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: a Long-Term Perspective; 1.2 How emerging Market Countries May Be Affected By External Shocks; 1.3 How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?; 1.4 International and National Oil Companies in a Changing Oil Sector Environment
- Chapter 2 Boxes: 2.1 Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural?; 2.2 Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Chapter 3 Boxes: 3.1 Japan's Potential Output and Productivity Growth; 3.2 The Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in Asia
- Chapter 4 Boxes: 4.1 Financial Leverage and Debt Deflation
- Chapter 5 Boxes: 5.1 Has Speculation Contributed to Higher Commodity Prices?; 5.2 Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Commodity Prices
- Appendix Boxes: A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

Charts and data visualizations enumerated by chapter (selected chart headings preserved exactly as listed), including:
- Chapter 1 Charts: Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Measures of the Output Gap and Labor Market Pressures; Global Inflation; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Mature Financial Market Indicators; 1.7 External Developments in Major Advanced Economies; 1.8 External Developments in Emerging Market Countries; 1.9 Emerging Market Financial Conditions; 1.10 Global Outlook; 1.11 Prospects for World GDP Growth; 1.12 Productivity Developments in Selected Advanced Economies; 1.13 Impact of Commodity Price Movements on Trade Balances in Emerging Markets and Developing Countries; 1.14 Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets; 1.15 Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices, Price Volatility, and Consumption-Production Changes; 1.16 OPEC Production, OPEC Spare Capacity, and OECD Inventories; 1.17 Stock Market Valuations and Real Investment in Oil and Non-Oil Sectors; 1.18 Nonenergy Commodities; 1.19 Semiconductor Market
- Chapter 2 Charts: United States: Are Inflationary Pressures Building; Western Europe: Boosting Productivity is the Key to Stronger Growth; Japan: Balancing Inflation and Deflation Risks; Emerging Asia: The Regional Impact of China's Rapid Growth; Latin America: Progress Toward Fiscal Sustainability; Latin America: Mixed Performance in the Hydrocarbons Sector; Emerging Europe: Rapid Growth and Its Risks; Commonwealth of Independent States: Strong Foreign Currency Inflows Create Macroeconomic Challenges; 2.9 Sub-Saharan Africa: Oil-Importing Countries Record Strong Growth Despite High Oil Prices; 2.10 Middle East: Spending Booming Oil Revenue Wisely
- Chapter 3 Charts: Output per Capita; Selected Indicators; 3.3 Growth Decompositions; 3.4 Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Investment and Labor Productivity Growth, 1989–2005; 3.5 Sectoral Shares of Value Added and Employment for Asia; 3.6 Employment and Labor Productivity in the Agricultural Sector Over Time; 3.7 Productivity Growth by Sector; 3.8 Sectoral Productivity Growth Since Takeoff; 3.9 9Contributions to Average Labor Productivity Growth Differential with the United States; 3.10 Skill Intensive Manufacturing Sectors: Employment and Value Added Shares; 3.11 Contributions to Average Manufacturing Productivity Growth Differential with the United States; 3.12 Determinants of Productivity Growth, 1970–2004; 3.13 Determinants of Labor Shifts from Agriculture; 3.14 Partial Correlations Between Labor Shift From Agriculture and Its Determinants
- Chapter 4 Charts: Stock and Bond Market Capitalization and Nonfinancial Sector Liabilities,1995–2004; Traditional Banking: Index for Selected Advanced Economies; New Financial Intermediation: Index for Selected Advanced Countries; 4.4 Financial Markets: Index for Selected Advanced Economies; 4.5 Financial Index Scores for Advanced Economies; 4.6 Features of Mortgage Markets; 4.7 Total Household Liabilities; 4.8 Consumption-Income Correlations and the Financial Index, 1985–2005; 4.9 Private Consumption: Response to Equity Busts, 1985–2005; 4.10 Private Consumption and Residential Investment: A Response to Housing Busts, 1970–2005; 4.11 Depth of Equity and Housing Busts and the Financial Index, 1985–2005; 4.12 Investment and Financing by the Corporate Sector; 4.13 The Financial Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment; 4.14 The Financial Index; 4.15 The Financial Index: Subindices for Selected Advanced Economies; 4.16 Clustering Results
- Chapter 5 Charts: Dependence on Exports of Non-Fuel Commodities and Geographical Concentration of Production; Long-Term Price Trends; Volatility in Nonfuel Commodities Prices; Commodity Prices over the Business Cycle; Recent Developments in Commodity Prices; Perspective on the Recent Price Developments, 1957–2006; Consumption of Base Metals and Steel, 1960–2005; The Importance of Industry at Various Stages of Economic Development, 1965–2004; Base Metal Prices on Futures Markets; Model-Based Forecasts of Aluminum and Copper Prices; Consumption of Base Metals and Industrial Production, 1960–2005; 5.12 Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the Model's Long-Run Parameters; 5.13 Crude Oil: Rolling Estimates of the Model's Short-Run Parameters

Access and Supplementary Items

View the webcast of the WEO Press Conference.
View the Full Text of the WEO and chapter files (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader).
Related items listed on the page include: World Economic Outlook; World Economic Outlook Database; September 2006; Transcript of World Economic Outlook Press Conference, September 14, 2006; Transcript of Press Briefing on the Analytic Chapters of the World Economic Outlook, September 6, 2006; Other issues of the World Economic Outlook; Frequently Asked Questions: WEO; Research at the IMF.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Financial Systems and Economic Cycles, September 2006

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Financial Systems and Economic Cycles, September 2006

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Overview and Purpose

Contents and Structure

Analytical Features and Supporting Materials

Access and Supplementary Items

Content in this bundle

References