Working Papers
2025
April 4, 2025
Digital Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality in China
Description: This paper uses both macro and household-level data to examine the relationship between digital financial inclusion, measured by the Peking University digital financial inclusion index, and income inequality in China. We find that a higher level of digital financial inclusion is associated with significantly lower income inequality within provinces, including through having larger positive effects on lower-income households’ incomes from salaries and public and private transfers. However, we do not find a significant impact of digital financial inclusion on income inequality across provinces, as households in the relatively more developed southern region benefitted more from digital financial inclusion than those in the northern region. We also find that digital financial inclusion has larger effects on the incomes of rural, female-headed, and less educated households, which have likely contributed to the narrowing of the overall income inequality, but a smaller effect on the income of elderly households—pointing to the “digital divide” problem among the elderly in China.
April 4, 2025
Europe’s Debt (Un)Sustainability: Looking Through Bohn’s Magnifying Glass
Description: No large European countries and only few small ones have met the so-called Bohn rule during the past 40 years or so. The Bohn rule specifies that past increases of public debt need to be systematically compensated with current and future fiscal surpluses to stabilize debt at some steady-state level. We find that post-1980 European fiscal primary balances have been driven by spending growth and consumption smoothing. The results change little between periods before and after the global financial crisis.
April 4, 2025
Bidding Behavior in Italian Treasury Auctions: The Role of Top-ups
Description: In response to rising global government debt, sovereign debt management offices (DMOs) are increasingly refining their issuance methods to optimize investor engagement and minimize borrowing costs. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a two-stage Treasury auction design that incorporates a supplementary non-competitive 'top-up' component, assessing its potential to enhance bidder performance. Utilizing detailed microdata from Italian Treasury bill auctions and employing a Difference-in-Differences analytical framework, the paper investigates how these supplementary top-up auctions influence bidder behavior in terms of requested quantities and offered prices during the main competitive auction. The analysis demonstrates that the introduction of top-ups promotes more aggressive bidding, especially among marginal bids, leading to higher cumulative bid values in the primary competitive phase. These findings suggest that top-up auctions can effectively boost auction coverage and may contribute to lower government borrowing costs by strategically shaping bidder incentives and behaviors.
April 4, 2025
AI Adoption and Inequality
Description: There are competing narratives about artificial intelligence’s impact on inequality. Some argue AI will exacerbate economic disparities, while others suggest it could reduce inequality by primarily disrupting high-income jobs. Using household microdata and a calibrated task-based model, we show these narratives reflect different channels through which AI affects the economy. Unlike previous waves of automation that increased both wage and wealth inequality, AI could reduce wage inequality through the displacement of high-income workers. However, two factors may counter this effect: these workers’ tasks appear highly complementary with AI, potentially increasing their productivity, and they are better positioned to benefit from higher capital returns. When firms can choose how much AI to adopt, the wealth inequality effect is particularly pronounced, as the potential cost savings from automating high-wage tasks drive significantly higher adoption rates. Models that ignore this adoption decision risk understating the trade-off policymakers face between inequality and efficiency.
April 4, 2025
AI and Productivity in Europe
Description: The discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) often centers around its impact on productivity, but macroeconomic evidence for Europe remains scarce. Using the Acemoglu (2024) approach we simulate the medium-term impact of AI adoption on total factor productivity for 31 European countries. We compile many scenarios by pooling evidence on which tasks will be automatable in the near term, using reduced-form regressions to predict AI adoption across Europe, and considering relevant regulation that restricts AI use heterogeneously across tasks, occupations and sectors. We find that the medium-term productivity gains for Europe as a whole are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years. While economcially still moderate, these gains are still larger than estimates by Acemoglu (2024) for the US. They vary widely across scenarios and countries and are sustantially larger in countries with higher incomes. Furthermore, we show that national and EU regulations around occupation-level requirements, AI safety, and data privacy combined could reduce Europe’s productivity gains by over 30 percent if AI exposure were 50 percent lower in tasks, occupations and sectors affected by regulation.
April 4, 2025
Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies
Description: This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it attenuates the effectiveness of conventional fiscal policy to jointly boost output and inflation. We then use the model as a laboratory to do a case study of the Swedish Riksbank asset purchases and negative policy rates 2015-2019. We find that the Riksbank unconventional policy measures provided meaningful macroeconomic stimulus to economic activity and inflation, with the dual benefit of reducing overall government debt by about 5 percent of GDP. If conventional fiscal policy had been used to provide a commensurate output boost, inflation would have risen notably less, and the fiscal cost would have amounted to a deterioration of the government debt position with nearly 8 percent of GDP.
April 4, 2025
Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle
Description: US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying “global dollar cycle”. Results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflecting a strong negative link between the US dollar and commodity prices. In terms of policies, more anchored inflation expectations can mitigate the initial negative spillovers while more flexible exchange rates can speed up the subsequent economic recovery.
April 4, 2025
Micro-Evidence on the Consumption Impact of Income-Support Policies During COVID-19
Description: Income-support policies can boost consumption during a catastrophic episode like the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data on Chilean municipalities, we investigate the impact on private consumption of income-support policies, such as lump-sum transfers and withdrawals of funds from the contributors’ mandatory pension accounts. We find that both emergency income and pension withdrawals had statistically significant effects with an estimated average marginal propensity to consume of about 20 percent. Consumption of durable goods is more sensitive to these policies than other goods, especially in the programs’ initial stages. Higher educational attainment and financial leverage, proxying better access to bank credit, are associated with weaker consumption reaction across municipalities.
April 4, 2025
The Impact of Labor Litigation Cases on Firm-level Productivity in Brazil
Description: The Brazilian labor market went through significant changes in 2017 with reforms to reduce litigation and increase flexibility in employment contracts. Using firm-level data, we exploit the variation in litigation cases across Brazilian states to estimate the impact of the 2017 labor reforms on productivity. The results suggest a significant boost in total factor productivity (TFP) for labor- and trade-intensive firms from the decline in litigation costs. High labor intensive firms witnessed an increase in TFP of about 15 percent after the reform compared to low labor-intensive firms. Similar magnitudes are found for trade-internsive firms. There is also some suggestive evidence that the productivity-enhancing effects of the reforms are especially pronounced for small firms.
March 28, 2025
Monetary Shocks and Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Postings
Description: Central banks conduct monetary policy to achieve price stability, but decisions also have effects on labor-market outcomes. In this paper, we identify exogenous monetary shocks with the ‘interest rate surprise’ approach based on high-frequency changes in forward-looking interest rates and use daily data on online job vacancy postings to investigate the impact of monetary policy on labor markets in three European countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) during the period 2018–2024. Our results indicate that monetary policy exerts significant and durable effects on labor-market conditions as measured by online job vacancy postings in our sample of countries. First, a contractionary (expansionary) monetary policy shock leads to a persistent decline (increase) in online job vacancy postings. Across all countries, the average effect amounts to about 2 percent in 15 days after a contractionary monetary policy shock (i.e., an unanticipated increase of 1 percentage point in short-term interest rates). Second, there is significant heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of how monetary policy affects the labor market across three countries in our sample, varying from 0.5 percent in Latvia to 2 percent in Estonia and 3.2 percent in Lithuania. Taken together, these results are both of direct concern for policymakers and important for the transmission of monetary policy.