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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Western Hemisphere: A Long and Winding Road to Recovery
October 21, 2021
An economic recovery is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but the pandemic still casts shadows on much of the region. The recovery was robust in the first quarter of 2021 but lost momentum in some countries in the second quarter, reflecting the rebound in COVID-19 cases. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021, followed by a more moderate growth of 3 percent in 2022, but would not catch up with pre-pandemic trends in the medium term as persistent weakness in labor markets raises risks of scarring. Broadly favorable external conditions, high commodity prices, and pent-up demand support short-term growth, while monetary and fiscal policy reversals work in the other direction. Risks to the outlook are tilted downward. Main downside risks are the emergence of more transmissible and deadlier COVID-19 variants, tightening of global financial conditions, sovereign debt rollover risks, and social unrest as a year with heavy election schedule looms. Fiscal policy should allocate sufficient resources for health spending, including vaccination, and continue to support households and firms in a more targeted fashion while the pandemic persists, backed by credible assurances of medium-term debt sustainability to maintain access to finance. Monetary policy has started to address inflationary pressures but should continue to support economic activity insofar as the dynamics of inflation expectations permit. If rising inflation threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations, central banks should tighten monetary policy to signal a commitment to inflation targets and avoid persistent increases in inflation. Preemptive and decisive action should be accompanied with clear and transparent communication. Financial policy should shift from blanket support to targeted support of viable firms, to ensure that necessary labor and capital reallocations are not hindered. Supply-side policies should foster inclusive growth, including through progressive and growth-friendly tax reforms and measures to intensify climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Blog: Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year
October 21, 2021
By Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer, and Nico Valckx Soaring natural gas prices are rippling through global energy markets—and other economic sectors from factories to utilities. An unprecedented combination of factors is roiling world energy markets, rekindling the memories of the 1970s energy crisis and complicating an already uncertain outlook for inflation and the global economy. [...]
IMF Staff Completes Discussions on the 2021 Article IV Consultations and Reaches a Staff-Level Agreement with Moldova on a New Economic Program
October 21, 2021
Sub-Saharan Africa: One Planet, Two Worlds, Three Stories
October 21, 2021
Opening Remarks at the Press Briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa
October 21, 2021
Shirin Hamid to Become the IMF’s Chief Information Officer and Director of the Information and Technology Department
October 20, 2021
Women in Economics: Jayati Ghosh on Unpaid Care Work
October 20, 2021
IMF Staff Concludes Virtual Visit to Uganda
October 20, 2021
Kuwait: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission
October 20, 2021