Online: Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTX)
This online course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, explains how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios and how to estimate the path of fiscal adjustments necessary to reach a pre-determined target level of debt.
This two-module course, lays out the underpinnings of public debt dynamics (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time) and explains how these concepts are applied in an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT). Using projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables, the DDT provides public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios, including through fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner. The DDT also identifies the main drivers of public debt changes and computes measures of fiscal adjustments that are necessary to achieve a public debt target during a certain period, as specified by the user.
Target Audience
All government officials are welcome to register. This course is particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
Qualifications
Some knowledge of economics is helpful. Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Compute public debt dynamics.
- Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
- Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
- Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
- Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.