Comprehensive analysis, disclosure and management of fiscal risks – factors that can cause fiscal outcomes to differ from expectations – is needed to ensure sound public finances and macroeconomic stability as well as fiscal transparency. The past two decades have shown that fiscal risk realizations can be costly, occur frequently, and arise from a variety of sources. Macroeconomic shocks, financial crises, commodity price shocks, natural disasters and bailouts of public enterprises have put pressure on public finances across high and lower income countries alike.

The COVID-19 pandemic further underscored these lessons, triggering the largest fiscal risk realization since World War II and leading to policy responses, that while necessary, have in many cases resulted in additional fiscal risk exposures.

The IMF’s Fiscal Risk Toolkit, guidance materials and capacity development help policymakers to identify, monitor, and manage fiscal risks. Better understanding of fiscal risks, combined with their transparent reporting and effective risk management underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances.

Learn more about the IMF's Role in Fiscal Risk Management

FISCAL RISK TOOLKIT

The IMF’s Fiscal Risk Toolkit comprises a suite of analytical tools to guide government policy and capacity development. The tools provide a practical basis to help countries identify, analyze, manage and disclose fiscal risks. Click on the segments of the wheel to learn more about each tool.

KNOWLEDGE HUB

The IMF has prepared a wide range of guidance notes to help countries better understand and manage fiscal risks. These include high-level analytical and policy papers, detailed How to Notes that provide guidance on approaches to analyzing and managing specific fiscal risks, and individual country capacity development reports which aim to help countries strengthen monitoring, analysis, management and reporting of fiscal risks that is tailored to their particular situation.

LATEST UPDATES
Publications

Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises

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Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure

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Government Support to State-Owned Enterprises: Options for Sub-Saharan Africa

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Managing Fiscal Risks Under Fiscal Stress

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