Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2024
June 13, 2024
Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms
Description: Oman’s potential nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth has trended downward since the global financial crisis, with a negative contribution from total factor productivity. This paper estimates productivity gains associated with structural reforms and identifies key binding constraints and reform priorities to boost productivity in Oman. Our results show that reforms to reduce the state’s footprint and strengthen institutions, as well as product market reforms, should be prioritized and packaged together to magnify productivity gains from labor market and financial sector reforms. These findings could inform the planning and implementation of the ongoing structural reform agenda envisaged under Oman Vision 2040.
June 13, 2024
A Financial Sector for the Economy of the Future: Oman
Description: Underpinned by Vision 2040, Oman aims to reduce its economic reliance on the hydrocarbon sector by diversifying its economy. Reforms are targeted to develop a well-diversified, private-led, sustainable, and inclusive economy where innovation and knowledge play a more prominent role. This requires the existence of a well-developed, inclusive, and stable financial sector that can navigate the country’s transformation and fund the new economy. As the economic transformation gains traction and entrepreneurship and innovation take center stage, Oman’s financial sector will face a more complex environment where it needs to develop innovative financial and risk management solutions to cater for the emerging and expanding financial needs of the different players in the economy. Against this background, this note provides an assessment of the development of Oman’s financial sector, identifies areas for potential improvement, and proposes policy actions to foster further financial development and inclusion.
June 13, 2024
Monetary Policy Transmission in Oman
Description: Amid a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar and an open capital account, Oman’s policy rates move closely with US monetary policy. In this analysis, we show empirically that transmission from policy rates into effective lending and deposit rates remains subdued in Oman, even compared to GCC peers that similarly face a high oil price environment with persistent excess liquidity in the banking system. A cap on personal loan rates and low exposure of banks to SMEs and riskier borrowers limit passthrough into effective lending rates and credit conditions. The note documents ongoing actions by Omani policymakers to strengthen transmission and provides further recommendations on liquidity management, reserve management, and relaxing the interest rate cap.
June 13, 2024
Mitigating Fiscal Risks in Oman
Description: Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. This note revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management.
May 17, 2024
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU
Description: Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
May 17, 2024
Recent Challenges to the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the WAEMU
Description: This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market. In response to these shocks, the BCEAO operated via both policy rates and liquidity management, including by shifting from fixed to variable rate auctions. The paper finds that the conduct of monetary policy became progressively more constrained by financial stability and external viability challenges, arguing for enhanced monetary-fiscal policy coordination to help the BCEAO meet its reserves objectives.
May 17, 2024
Key Banking System Risks in the WAEMU
Description: The gradual alignment of prudential regulations on Basel II/III standards since 2018, as well as improvements in banking supervision and macroprudential surveillance, have contributed to the WAEMU’s banking system’s resilience to recent global and regional shocks. However, while cyclical vulnerabilities have been contained, bank credit portfolios remain highly concentrated, and their exposure to sovereign risks has grown substantially in recent years, together with liquidity risks. Further reforms building on those recently implemented in line with recommendations from the 2022 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), including to enhance macroprudential policy’s effectiveness and banking supervision frameworks, will help address such vulnerabilities.
May 17, 2024
Climate Change in the WAEMU: Trends, Macro-criticality and Options Going Forward
Description: This paper focuses on the trends in climate change in the WAEMU, assesses the criticality of climate change for the region, and reviews the related policy and financing options going forward. Climate change has been increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods in the WAEMU. Temperatures have risen significantly, and climate-related disasters have hit the region more frequently in recent decades. Climate change can exacerbate the current challenges and hinder long-term economic prospects by threatening economic growth, food security, fiscal and external sustainability, and social outcomes in the region. Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and cooperation among different parties remain critical alongside regional efforts, in particular to have access to necessary financing and bolster adaptation efforts.
May 17, 2024
Gender Inequality in the WAEMU: Current Situation and Opportunities
Description: This paper documents the current state of gender inequalities in the WAEMU by focusing on outcomes (health, education, labor market and financial inclusion) and opportunities (economic rights). The findings show that despite significant progress toward gender equality over the last three decades, there are still prevalent gender-based disparities, which prevent women from fulfilling their economic potential. Both empirical and model-based estimates suggest that the WAEMU can reap substantial economic gains by mitigating the existing gender gaps in schooling and labor market outcomes. Hence, achieving gender equality remains a macro-critical goal for the region. Going forward, the need for specific policies supportive of gender equality may vary in each member country, but a multifaceted and holistic approach is needed to unleash the related economic potential in the WAEMU as a whole.
February 21, 2024
2022 FIFA World Cup: Economic Impact on Qatar and Regional Spillovers
Description: Qatar hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) successfully and took the opportunity to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy. Near-term contributions to Qatar’s economy, from visitors’ spending and WC-related broadcasting revenue, of up to 1 percent of GDP was comparable to cross-country experiences. The event generated positive regional economic spillovers as a sizeable share of spectators stayed in and commuted from neighboring GCC countries. Longer-term contributions were significant—the large investment in general infrastructure ahead of the WC drove much of the non-hydrocarbon sector’s growth in the past decade. The high-quality infrastructure and global visibility brought by the WC should be leveraged to further promote diversification and achieve the National Vision 2030.