Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2023
March 13, 2023
Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral: NETHERLANDS
Description: Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
March 6, 2023
Nigeria’s Tax Revenue Mobilization: Lessons from Successful Revenue Reform Episodes: Nigeria
Description: This paper has identified four episodes of large and sustained revenue mobilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and found common lessons from the episodes. Although there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, we can find a tax reform path suitable to Nigeria’s circumstances. Based on these cross-country experiences, this paper recommends: (i) implementing a package reform of tax administration and tax policy measures; (ii) focusing mainly on indirect tax (VAT and excise) reforms and tax incentive rationalizations; (iii) undertaking tax administration measures for improving compliance by strengthening taxpayer segmentation and automation; and (iv) launching social dialogue with key stakeholders as well as high-level political commitment.
March 6, 2023
Nigeria—Fostering Financial Inclusion through Digital Financial Services: Nigeria
Description: Financial inclusion in Nigeria has had undeniable successes, with the onboarding of residents to the banking sector consistently progressing. But the overall exclusion rates continue to exceed official targets, not least due to low financial literacy. Going forward, Nigeria’s financial inclusion strategy should more systematically leverage rapidly developing digital instruments. Uptake of digital financial services, notably mobile money, is still lower than in peer countries, and overcoming this would require improving digital financial literacy, upgrading digital infrastructure, and promoting incubation and sound practices of fintech firms. Nigeria’s CBDC also has an enabling potential if accompanied by a comprehensive package of supportive policies.
March 6, 2023
Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Food Supply Matters: Nigeria
Description: Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.
March 2, 2023
Wage Indexation and International Competitiveness in Belgium: An Uneasy Coexistence: Belgium
Description: Belgium is one of a small group of euro area countries that maintains indexation of wages to inflation as part of its wage setting framework. With intensified price pressures since late 2020 driving inflation to record levels, the tension between compensating workers for purchasing power losses while maintaining international competitiveness have again been highlighted. To improve the performance and viability of the current setup, several avenues of reform could be envisaged. In particular, the scope for excluding price increases in highly volatile components, like energy and food, from the indexation basis should be explored to less the need to restore competitiveness by prolonged periods of real wage restraint. Moreover, options to widen the flexibility of the indexation regime should be contemplated to alleviate the burden of firms at times of large and multiple shocks, thereby also preserving investment and employment. Finally, productivity trends should also be accounted for to capture deviations of labor costs between Belgium and its key export markets.
March 2, 2023
Fiscal Federalism in Belgium: Challenges in Restoring Fiscal Sustainability Belgium: Belgium
Description: Fiscal decentralization in Belgium progressed substantially in 2015-19. However, as decentralization of expenditure responsibilities continued to outpace decentralization of revenue authority, vertical fiscal gaps and greater reliance on transfers from shared resources may have reduced spending discipline. Consecutive shocks (pandemic, energy prices) have worsened the fiscal positions of all levels of government, requiring urgent and concerted effort to improve fiscal and debt sustainability. Fostering better fiscal policy coordination across all levels of government would improve the efficiency of Belgium’s decentralized fiscal framework. We recommend that fiscal adjustment at the subnational levels should be a part of the general government fiscal consolidation plan, with strict spending limits applying; integrating systematic spending reviews in the budgetary process; and adopting a more strategic, multi-annual fiscal framework to support adjustment. Implementing the 2013 Cooperation Arrangement—intended to provide fiscal rules to govern and coordinate public finances at all levels—is important. Also, the cost of overborrowing at the regional level should be fully internalized; recalibration of transfers could be considered; and some flexibility should be retained in the pace and scope of further decentralization. Finally, there is scope to improve the integration of fiscal sustainability objectives in federal and subnational structural reforms.
March 2, 2023
Fiscal Policy Options to Accelerate Emissions Reductions in Belgium Belgium: Belgium
Description: Belgium’s current policies fall short of achieving its climate targets and promoting emissions reductions at limited economic costs. We recommend that domestic carbon pricing form the centerpiece of an emissions reduction package, as pricing promotes mitigation at the lowest economic cost, can be phased in as international energy prices fall, and generates revenue to compensate vulnerable households and reduce taxes on productive activities. Sectoral policies, such as subsidy-tax schemes to promote low emissions vehicles, should reinforce carbon pricing and regional efforts, while the social protection system can be made more efficient and environmentally friendly by switching from energy subsidies to income-based support. Belgium should also promote dialogue at the EU-level to harmonize ETS prices and include all sectors under a single trading scheme.
February 28, 2023
Spending Efficiency and Reforms: France
Description: To rebuild fiscal buffers after large fiscal responses to successive shocks over 2020-22, France will need to reverse the trend spending increase observed over the last three decades through structural spending reforms. This paper identifies areas where scope for savings or efficiency gains exist based on an evaluation of the level and efficiency of public spending in France relative to European peers, using benchmarking analysis and stochastic frontier analysis to derive efficiency frontiers. Reforming social protection, health, education, and civil service, and rationalizing tax expenditures should preserve or improve outcomes while generating savings that would help meet medium-term adjustment needs.
February 28, 2023
Structural Transitions to Electric Vehicle Production: Czech Republic
Description: Sustaining the impressive convergence gains allowed by the Czech automotive sector has become challenging due to its comparatively lower value added, lower investments in research and development, and lower skills in the labor market. Using a structural model of global value chains, the paper examines policies to smooth the transition to the production of electric vehicles in Czechia. The analysis explores the impacts of increasing labor productivity, boosting production capabilities, and moving up the global value chain. These policies were found to have a relatively lower impact when they shift specialization towards lower value-added stages of production.
February 28, 2023
Labor Productivity Dynamics in Spain: A Firm-Level Perspective: Spain
Description: This paper uses firm-level data that covers over 1.2 million Spanish firms during the period of 2003-2019 to provide an updated assessment of the drivers of labor productivity in the Spanish economy, focusing on both TFP and firm investment. The empirical analysis shows significant differences in production constraints in both the capital market and the labor market, across firm size and age. This paper also includes a review of Spain’s ambitious reform commitments under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan and concludes with recommendations for further action.