Selected Issues Papers
IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries.
2024
February 15, 2024
Domestic and External Drivers of Inflation: The Gambia
Description: This paper investigates the drivers of headline inflation and the degree of exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) in The Gambia over the period 2014-2023. The analysis highlights the decisive long-term roles of global prices of commodities (food, oil and fertilizer), the exchange rate, and the domestic output gap. The short-run dynamics of inflation points to the roles of global food price and the second-round effects of changes in food prices and the output gap. Monetary policy has the potential to tame inflation in the short run provided the monetary policy rate is adjusted rapidly and boldly. Lastly, there is evidence of an asymmetric ERPT to domestic prices, and the size of currency depreciation matters for inflation dynamics.
February 15, 2024
Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Strategies: The Gambia
Description: This paper analyzes The Gambia's vulnerability to climate change, highlighting risks like flooding, droughts, and coastal erosion, which threaten food security and key industries. It details The Gambia's climate strategies, including the National Climate Change Policy, 2050 Climate Vision, and Long-Term Climate-Neutral Development Strategy, targeting net-zero emissions by 2050. Despite its minimal global emissions contribution, The Gambia's focus on renewable energy expansion offers dual benefits for energy security and development. The paper underscores the need for improved land management, crop diversification, and irrigation to boost adaptive capacity and resilience, ensuring food security amidst climate challenges.
February 15, 2024
Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Gender Gaps: The Gambia
Description: We present the current status of labor market gender gaps in The Gambia and examine the macroeconomic and distributional gains from closing the gaps. We also study the impacts of high costs of living and the determinants of poverty. Closing labor market gender gaps, would significantly boost GDP, government revenues, women’s earnings, and reduce income inequality. High food costs adversely affect the levels of consumption in the bottom four quartiles of the income distribution. Lack of access to finance, living in rural areas, lack of employment, low levels of education, and exposure to climate shocks contribute to higher poverty levels.
February 9, 2024
Opportunities and Challenges of Climate Adaptation Policies: Republic of Moldova
Description: Moldova is more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of Europe, due to its (i) higher sensitivity to changes in climate conditions (reflecting its heavier reliance on agriculture, a comparatively-larger rural population, high dependence on energy imports and limited diversification of energy supply sources, and limited financial resources to provide high-quality public services); and (ii) weaker adaptative capacity to climate shocks (due to its comparatively weaker disaster preparedness strategy, low adaptation in the agriculture sector and poorer quality of infrastructure). Adaptation investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, are more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and can contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives.
February 9, 2024
Corruption and Economic Growth in Moldova: A Reexamination
Description: This paper examines corruption in Moldova, analyzing its impact on economic growth and progress in implementing earlier IMF recommendations on anti-corruption and anti-money laundering (AML). Despite solid legal frameworks, corruption remains a significant challenge, impeding growth and EU convergence. Drawing from regional successes, the paper stresses the importance of specialized anti-corruption agencies, robust prosecution, civil society involvement, and international expertise. Moldova has made strides in strengthening its legal and institutional infrastructure, but challenges like delayed corruption case adjudication persist. Recommendations include enhancing the Anti-corruption Prosecution Office's investigative capacity and establishing specialized adjudication infrastructure.
February 5, 2024
Policies to Address Climate Change: Ukraine
Description: While the near-term priorities are national defense and macroeconomic stabilization, gradually incorporating climate change considerations into policy design will become increasingly important after the war and into the long term. As regards climate change adaptation, investments will need to be made with a view to maintain long-term debt sustainability. Policy reforms will also be needed to move to a low-emissions economy to deliver international commitments and achieve the broader objective of European Union accession. Potential exists to deliver on climate priorities alongside implementing recovery and reconstruction efforts, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, and ensuring social protection and equity.
2023
December 19, 2023
The Fiscal Cost of Aging in Belgium: Pensions and Healthcare
Description: Belgium faces a fiscal consolidation challenge at a time when the fiscal cost of aging—primarily related to pension and health outlays—is mounting. Pension spending will increase relatively fast unless a combination of measures related to pension generosity and retirement eligibility are put in place. Potential efficiency gains are large in the health sector and could absorb part of the fiscal and reorganization costs related to an aging population.
December 19, 2023
Fiscal Consolidation in Belgium: How Much and by What Means?
Description: Belgium is facing higher structural deficits and rising debt after the pandemic and energy crisis. Fiscal consolidation is needed to lower inflation, rebuild buffers, reduce debt, and preserve Belgium’s social contract. While designing an appropriate fiscal consolidation path involves trade-offs, an ideally front-loaded and significant adjustment to achieve a medium-term structural balance would reduce public debt towards the 60 percent debt threshold, significantly reducing vulnerabilities. Experiences in other countries and in the past in Belgium show that while ambitious, such an adjustment is achievable. Comparisons with peers show that rationalizing and increasing the efficiency of social benefits and the public wage bill would need to be at the core of the consolidation effort. All federal entities should share the burden of the adjustment, in a coordinated manner, with accountability at all levels of government, and within a credible and clear multi-year consolidation plan. Comprehensive spending reviews would help target budgetary saving. To mitigate the growth impact in the near term and boost potential growth, public investment should be preserved, and the adjustment should go together with structural reforms to increase labor force participation and productivity.
December 13, 2023
Making Romania Fit and Resilient for the Net-Zero Transition
Description: Romania is on track to become ‘fit for 55’—reducing its absolute emissions by 55 percent (relative to 1990) by 2030, consistent with the European Green Deal. However, becoming carbon-neutral by 2050 in an economically resilient and competitive manner would require an accelerated decarbonization path, especially in the transport and building sectors—two emission-intensive sectors that are projected to raise Romania’s carbon footprint over time. The analysis presented in this paper shows that complementing the existing decarbonization measures with further national carbon pricing instruments in these sectors could put Romania on track to carbon neutrality. Crucially, these complementary measures would incentivize green private investment and boost energy security, while enhancing Romania’s resilience and unlocking its potential in the global green value chains.
December 13, 2023
Labor Force Participation in Romania
Description: Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people. With a declining working-age population, rasing LFP could yield signifcant benefits including by boosting long-term growth, mitigating the fiscal impact of an ageing society, and reducing inequality. Key policies to boost LFP include provision of affordabel high-quality childcare, and improving education standards.