IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries

World Economic Outlook, October 2, 2008

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries

Publication date: October 2008
The WEO presents IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.
Prepared semiannually as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee; forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
Full text available as a 6.6 MB pdf file.

Review of global macroeconomic developments, forecasts of growth, and identification of risks.
Focus on major economic policy issues and analysis of economic developments and prospects.
Emphasis on financial stress, economic downturns, fiscal policy responses, commodity-price-driven inflation, and current account divergence across emerging economies.

Numerous boxes addressing methodological and policy questions (examples):
- "The Latest Bout of Financial Distress: How Does It Change the Marcroeconomic Outlook?"
- "House Prices: Corrections and Consequences"
- "Measuring Output Gaps"
- "Policies to Resolve Financial System Stress and Restore Sound Financial Intermediation"
- "Differences in the Extent of Automatic Stabilizers and Their Relationship with Discretionary Fiscal Policy"
- "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Implications for Global Financial Markets"
Annex: "IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2008"
Statistical Appendix covering "Assumptions," "Data and Conventions," "Classification of Countries," and "General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification"

Tables: Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario, External Debt and Debt Service.
Figures and charts include:
- "Global Indicators" and "Current and Forward-Looking Indicators"
- "Global Inflation"
- "Developments in Mature Credit Markets" and "Emerging Economy Financial Conditions"
- "Impact of Financial Shock on the Global Economy"
- "Financial Stress Index" and "Financial Stress and Output Loss"
- "Macroeconomic Indicators around Downturns, with and without a Fiscal Impulse"
- "World Oil Market Balances and Oil Futures Price"
- "Commodity Prices in Historical Context"
Empirical analyses and diagnostics:
- Descriptive statistics on financial stress episodes and on financial stress, slowdowns, and recessions
- Cross-section regressions and duration regressions for current account deficits and imbalances
- Simulations of fiscal stimulus effects under various initial conditions and economy sizes

Publication date: October 2008
Full text file size: 6.6 MB pdf file
Time series and sample ranges cited in figures and tables include: 1991–2007, 2006–08, 1960-2007

IMF World Economic Outlook — Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries (October 2008).