Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Market Update
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Publication status and scope
- The GFSR Market Update was an online bulletin published by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department that covered developments in both mature and emerging markets.
- The bulletin was published twice a year — in the summer and winter — and complemented the Global Financial Stability Report.
- Last Updated: July 26, 2012.
- The GFSR Market Update ceased in 2012.
July, 2012 — Elevated euro-area sovereign and banking risks; global slowdown
- Findings:
- "Risks to financial stability have increased since the April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)."
- "Sovereign yields in southern Europe have risen sharply amid further erosion of the investor base."
- "Elevated funding and market pressures pose risks of further cuts in peripheral euro area credit."
- "Growth prospects in other advanced countries and emerging markets have also weakened."
- "Uncertainties on the fiscal outlook and federal debt ceiling in the United States present a latent risk to financial stability."
- Policy recommendations / priorities:
- Timely implementation of the measures agreed at the recent European Union (EU) leaders’ summit.
- Continue supportive monetary and liquidity policies.
- Make further progress on banking and fiscal unions.
- Resolve uncertainties about asset quality of banks’ balance sheets quickly, with capital injections and restructurings where needed.
January, 2012 — Persisting and rising downside risks from euro-area crisis
- Findings:
- "Risks to stability have increased, despite various policy steps to contain the euro area debt crisis and banking problems."
- "Sovereign financing remains challenging and downside risks remain."
- Potential systemic channel: If funding challenges trigger deleveraging by banks, this could ignite an adverse feedback loop to euro area economies.
- "The United States and other advanced economies are susceptible to spillovers from a potential intensification of the euro area crisis."
- "Developments in the euro area also threaten emerging Europe and may spill over to other emerging markets."
- Policy recommendations:
- Build larger backstops for sovereign financing.
- Assure adequate bank funding and capital.
- Maintain a sufficient flow of credit to the economy.
- Consider establishing a "gatekeeper" charged with preventing disorderly bank deleveraging.
June 17, 2011 — Rising financial risks from multiple sources
- Findings:
- Financial risks have risen for three reasons:
1. Increased downside risks to the base case of a multi-speed global recovery. 2. Concern about debt sustainability and market pressures in Europe’s periphery raising contagion risk. 3. The prolonged period of low interest rates may push investors into riskier assets in a "search for yield," potentially building financial imbalances, particularly in some emerging markets.
- Political risks are raising questions about medium-term fiscal adjustment in a few advanced countries, "notably, the United States and Japan."
- Improvements in financial system robustness have been "insufficient so far."
- Policy recommendations:
- Accelerate actions to address long-standing financial vulnerabilities as outlined in the GFSR before the window of opportunity closes.
January 25, 2011 — Incomplete balance sheet repair and global regulatory reform needs
- Findings:
- "Nearly four years after the onset of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, global financial stability is still not assured."
- Balance sheet restructuring is incomplete and leverage remains high.
- Interaction between banking and sovereign credit risks in the euro area remains a critical factor.
- Regulatory reforms are still needed to put the financial sector on a sounder footing.
- Accommodative policies in advanced economies and favorable fundamentals in some emerging markets are spurring capital inflows that risk asset price bubbles and excessive credit in emerging countries.
- Policy implications:
- Monitor emerging market asset prices and credit for signs of overheating.
- Continue regulatory reform to strengthen the financial sector.
July, 2010 — Sovereign risks re-emerging and policy follow-through needed
- Findings:
- Progress toward global financial stability experienced a setback despite improved economic conditions since the failure of Lehman Brothers.
- "Sovereign risks in parts of the euro area have materialized and spread to the financial sector there," threatening spillovers and adverse feedback to the economy.
- Policy recommendations:
- Pursue decisive follow-up to significant national and supranational policy responses to strengthen confidence in the financial system and ensure continuation of the economic recovery.
January, 2010 — Fragile financial stability and exit strategy challenges
- Findings:
- "Systemic risks have continued to subside as economic fundamentals have improved and substantial public support remains in place," but financial stability remains fragile in many advanced countries and some hard-hit emerging market countries.
- Transfer of financial risks to sovereign balance sheets and higher public debt levels add to financial stability risks and complicate exit.
- Capital inflows into some emerging market countries raise concerns about asset price and exchange rate pressures.
- Policy recommendations:
- Improve health of banking systems to normalize the credit channel.
- Consider earlier exit from supportive policies in some emerging markets to contain financial stability risks.
- Aim to exit extraordinary public interventions toward a safer global financial system that retains dynamism for sustainable growth.
July, 2009 — Improved conditions but persistent vulnerabilities
- Findings:
- Financial conditions improved due to unprecedented policy intervention reducing systemic collapse risk.
- Vulnerabilities remain; the financial sector remains dependent on significant public support, transferring private risk to the public sector.
- Policy implications:
- Begin work on exit strategies from financial, monetary, and fiscal support policies.
- Ensure medium-term policies align to establish sound financial regulation, sustainable fiscal balances, and price stability.
Earlier updates (2003–2005) — Liquidity-driven risk-taking, search for yield, and emerging market flows
- December, 2005:
- Findings: Financial conditions remained favorable, supported by sustained global growth expectations, abundant liquidity, and investor search for yield, but risks remain as interest rate and credit cycles turn and global liquidity is withdrawn.
- Concerns: Emerging markets with structural vulnerabilities; leveraged credit instruments in mature markets; sub-prime mortgage segments in the United States.
- June, 2005:
- Findings: Dollar appreciation despite growing U.S. current account deficit; long-term interest rates fell despite increases in short-term policy rates.
- Trend: "Search for yield" prompted moves toward riskier assets and complex instruments such as credit derivatives.
- November, 2004:
- Findings: Low yields and low volatility encouraged risk-taking, especially in credit markets, leading to low credit spreads and increased leveraged positions.
- Concern: Heavy U.S. reliance on capital inflows raised concerns and contributed to a decline of the dollar.
- June, 2004:
- Findings: Expectations about the U.S. tightening cycle affected global investor positioning and triggered orderly deleveraging without threatening financial stability.
- May, 2003 and November, 2003:
- Findings: Ample liquidity and improved market confidence spurred rallies in corporate and emerging market bonds; compressed spreads and low equity volatility; ongoing risks if growth rebound falters or inflows push valuations beyond fundamentals.
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- Charts
- Português (PDF)
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- Charts (PDF)